\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 288 Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) )
The performance is in line with expectations. In 2021, the annual revenue was 719.9 billion yuan (+ 9.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 241.2 billion yuan (+ 11.7%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 175 billion yuan (+ 9.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 54.5 billion yuan (+ 7.7%). 2021 roa0 86%， ROE11. 57%, up 0.03 and 0.22 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Previously, the CBRC has disclosed the banking operation data in 2021, and the market has expected the performance of large industries.
The net interest margin stabilized in the second half of the year. The net interest income in 2021 increased by 6.0% year-on-year, of which the net interest margin in 2021 was 2.12%, narrowed by 8bps year-on-year, flat compared with the first three quarters, and stabilized in the second half of the year. In 2021, the company’s loan yield decreased by 15bps, but thanks to the company’s active optimization of asset structure and improvement of high-yield asset allocation, the company’s overall interest bearing asset yield decreased by only 5bps. The deposit competition is fierce. In 2021, the deposit cost increased by 8bps, but thanks to the decline in the cost of interbank funds and bonds payable under the broad monetary policy, the overall cost of interest bearing liabilities only increased by 3bps.
Loans have achieved good expansion, the trend of regular deposits is obvious, and there is great pressure to attract deposits. In 2021, the company’s total assets increased by 6.9%, loans increased by 12.9%, and the proportion of loans in total assets increased by 3.1 percentage points to 56.6% compared with the beginning of the year. Interbank assets and cash assets were reduced, and the asset structure was optimized. Deposits increased by only 7.5% in 2021, and the trend of regular deposits was obvious. The proportion of domestic demand deposits at the end of the period was 52.4%, down 2.8 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The deposit side of the company in 2022 is still facing great pressure.
The asset quality continued to improve, and the provision coverage increased to 300%. The non-performing rate at the end of the period was 1.43%, down 5bps from the end of September and 14bps from the beginning of the year. The attention rate at the end of the period was 1.48%, and the overdue rate was 1.08%, down 10bps and 3bps respectively compared with the end of June. The asset quality of the company continued to improve, and the relevant indicators of asset quality are at a low level. After the improvement of asset quality, the provision pressure decreased significantly. In 2021, the company slightly reduced the provision, but benefited from the improvement of asset quality, the provision coverage at the end of the period reached 300%, an increase of 12 percentage points compared with the end of September and 34 percentage points compared with the beginning of the year, which is at a high level among major banks.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
The performance is in line with expectations, the asset quality of the company has been greatly improved, and will maintain good growth in a stable growth environment. We kept our profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that its net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 262.4 billion yuan / 278.5 billion yuan / 295.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% / 6.1% / 6.2%, corresponding to diluted eps0.5% 75 yuan / 0.80 yuan / 0.85 yuan. The corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 4.0x/3.8x/3.5x and Pb is 0.47x/0.43x/0.39x. Considering the low valuation of the company, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the steady growth policy is less than expected, and the economic recovery is lower than expected.
