\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 800 China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) )
The performance was lower than expected, mainly due to factors such as Q4 impairment. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 685.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.03% (10.0% lower than the performance in 2019); The non deduction performance was 14.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and the performance was lower than expected. By quarter, the operating revenue of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 changed by + 59.2% / + 25.0% / + 7.5% / – 22.2% year-on-year; The year-on-year change of net profit attributable to parent company in a single quarter was + 84.8% / + 95.8% / + 4.9% / – 50.6%. The decline in performance in the fourth quarter was mainly due to: 1) Q4 accrued impairment of 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4 billion yuan year-on-year. 2) After the epidemic in the second half of 20 years, the work was accelerated, the income base was high, and the company controlled the rhythm of capital investment, resulting in a year-on-year decline in Q4 income in 21 years. In 2022, the target of the company’s newly signed contract amount is no less than 11.8% year-on-year growth, and the target of revenue is no less than 6.0% year-on-year growth. The dividend plan of the company is 2.04 yuan for 10 dividends, and the corresponding dividend rate is 2.2%.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly and the cash flow improved. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 12.52%, yoy-0.5 PCT. from the perspective of business, the gross profit margin of infrastructure construction / infrastructure design / dredging / other businesses changed by -0.50 / – 0.17 / – 1.72 / – 1.27 PCT respectively. The decline in the gross profit margin of infrastructure construction was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of low gross profit housing construction business and the rise in raw materials. During the period, the expense rate was 7.25%, yoy-0.63 PCT, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate changed by + 0.02 / – 0.32 / + 0.09 / – 0.42 PCT respectively. The increase in R & D expense rate was mainly due to the increase in R & D projects of new projects; The decrease of financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase of interest income of investment projects. The provision for impairment of assets is more than RMB 1.5 billion. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 2.62%, yoy + 0.04 PCT. The net outflow of operating cash flow in the whole year was 12.6 billion yuan, compared with 13.9 billion yuan in the same period of last year, which was mainly due to changes in accounting policies such as PPP. After retroactive adjustment in the same period of last year, the net outflow was 31.1 billion yuan, narrowed by 18.4 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the accelerated turnover of accounts receivable and the decrease of funds occupied by inventories. The sum of net operating and investment cash flows was a net outflow of 65.5 billion yuan, compared with 91.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, which was significantly improved. The annual average roe was 7.1%, yoy + 0.3 PCT, the net interest rate increased by 0.3 PCT, the total asset turnover rate was basically the same as that of the previous year, and the equity multiplier increased by about 0.23.
Orders increased by 19% in the whole year, and there were abundant orders on hand. In 2021, the company’s newly signed contracts totaled 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.9% at the same time. Orders for urban comprehensive development, railways and rail transit contributed to the main growth momentum. In terms of sectors, the capital construction sector newly signed 1.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.4%, of which ports / roads and bridges / railways / urban construction / overseas projects increased by 26.9% / 12.3% / 61.8% / 27.0% / 3.8% respectively. The higher growth rate of railway orders is mainly due to the company’s winning a number of major Sichuan Tibet railway projects. In urban construction business, urban comprehensive development / housing construction / municipal / rail transit / environmental governance / others account for 26% / 25% / 21% / 10% / 6% / 12% of the total new signing amount respectively. Capital construction design / dredging / other businesses were newly signed with 44.5/87.3/10.7 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 6.8% / + 48.4% / + 14.8% respectively. By the end of 2021, the amount of outstanding contracts was 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, about 4.6 times the revenue in 2021. There are sufficient orders on hand to ensure sustained and steady growth in the future.
The company’s first REITs project will be put on sale soon, which is expected to fully benefit from the accelerated issuance of REITs. According to the announcement, Huaxia China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) REITs will be officially put on sale on April 7. The sale price of fund units is 9.399 yuan / share. It is estimated that the total amount raised will be 9.399 billion yuan (an increase of 6.2% over the cumulative investment amount of the project), which will become the largest public offering REITs in China’s market. The company is rich in operating assets. By the end of the year 21, 27 projects (with 19 equity participation projects) had entered the operation period, with a total investment of about 185.2 billion yuan. The operating income in the year 21 was 7.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a net loss of 1.736 billion yuan. If it is screened on the basis of charging for four years or more and the ratio of income to investment exceeds 4%, the company is expected to declare a total of 8 REITs projects in the short term, with a total investment of about 75.1 billion yuan. Combined with the recent statements of the CSRC on REITs raising, if the company’s high-quality and high-speed assets are continuously injected into the REITs platform through raising in the future, it will help to accelerate the revitalization of stock assets and build a complete closed-loop operation mode of “investment construction withdrawal investment”. In addition, relying on the company’s professional operation ability in the infrastructure market, the company can optimize the management of its Expressway and other assets, fully enlarge the value of infrastructure assets and obtain additional investment income.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 21.2/241/27 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18% / 14% / 12%, EPS of 1.31/1.49/1.67 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 7.4/6.5/5.8 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the strength of steady growth policy is lower than expected, the epidemic risk is repeated, the project progress does not meet the expected risk, and the progress of REITs and other new businesses does not meet the expectations.
