Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) )
Event: the company issued the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 151.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.3%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 16.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 148.1%. The main reason is that the prices of coal, acetic acid and other major products have increased significantly. In the Q4 single quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 46.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% and a month on month increase of 18.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3215.9% and a month on month decrease of 13.8%; Mainly due to the provision of asset impairment loss of 1.18 billion yuan and credit impairment loss of 510 million yuan in Q4.
Coal: Q4 production and sales have recovered. In terms of production and marketing, in 2021, the company’s coal sector achieved an output of 110 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%; The sales volume reached 110 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%; Among them, the sales volume of self-produced coal was 93.87 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%; This was mainly due to the normalization of safety supervision and environmental protection high pressure in the first half of this year, and the superposition of the limited production of some coal mines during the July 1st Daqing and Shaanxi national games, which affected the production of coal mines in the company; In Australia, due to the severe flood in New South Wales, the output of open-pit coal mines in the region decreased; At the same time, in order to improve the quality of assets, the company stripped off the trading coal business, and the sales volume of trading coal decreased by 22.94 million tons year-on-year. In Q4 of the 21st year, under the background of relevant departments fully promoting the increase of production and supply, the existing coal mines in the country entered the state of full production, and the operating rate of coal mines continued to rise to the high level of the year; At the same time, the Australian base got rid of the impact of floods and changes in geological conditions, and production gradually resumed. Q4 in a single quarter, the coal sector achieved an output of 27.25 million tons, an increase of 1.7% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%; The sales volume reached 28.58 million tons, an increase of 7.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%; Among them, the sales volume of self-produced coal was 24.82 million tons, an increase of 4% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. In terms of selling price and cost, the annual selling price of coal was 793 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 68.6%; The cost per ton of coal was 445 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 348 yuan / ton, up 111.5% year-on-year.
Coal chemical industry: steady production and sales throughout the year. The company’s coal chemical phase II project was completed and put into operation at the beginning of 2021. In the whole year, the production and sales of chemical products were 5.79 million tons / 5.25 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 26.6% / 22.7%. According to the products:
Methanol: in 2021, the annual output was 2.503 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37.3%; The sales volume reached 2.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. Q4 achieved an output of 563000 tons in a single quarter, an increase of 8.2% month on month and 16.5% year-on-year; The sales volume was 495000 tons, down 29.3% month on month and 4.2% year-on-year. The annual selling price of methanol per ton was 1947 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 49.2%; The gross profit per ton was 407 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 92%.
Ethylene glycol: the annual output will be 292000 tons in 2021; The sales volume reached 295000 tons; The price per ton is 4173 yuan / ton, and the gross profit per ton is 1424 yuan / ton. Among them, Q4 achieved an output of 90000 tons in a single quarter, a month on month increase of 126%; The sales volume reached 77000 tons, an increase of 28.3% month on month.
Acetic acid: in 2021, the annual output was 1.092 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The sales volume was 757000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Q4 produced 278000 tons in a single quarter, up 6.9% month on month and down 3.0% year on year; The sales volume reached 193000 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 7000 tons. The annual selling price of acetic acid per ton was 5647 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 152.8%; The gross profit per ton was 3092 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 600.2%.
Ethyl acetate: in 2021, the annual output was 401000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7%; The sales volume was 402000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. Q4 achieved an output of 102000 tons in a single quarter, an increase of 13.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%; The sales volume reached 104000 tons, with a month on month increase of 15.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. The annual price of ethyl acetate per ton was 7677 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 52.3%; The gross profit per ton was 1905 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 478.7%.
Liquid crude wax: in 2021, the annual output was 448000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; The sales volume was 445000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. Q4 achieved 113000 tons of output in a single quarter, with a month on month increase of 2.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; The sales volume reached 122000 tons, with a month on month increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The annual selling price of crude liquid wax was 4892 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%; The gross profit per ton was 1328 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 197.3%.
It is expected that Q1 in 22 will increase by 193.2% year-on-year, showing full performance flexibility. The company issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 will be about 6.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 193.2%; It is estimated that in 2022, Q1 will realize a net profit of about 6.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 195.81%. The main reason is that part of the company’s coal is coking coal, part of the power coal production capacity of Shaanxi Inner Mongolia base is coal for coal chemical industry, and the overseas coal price follows api5, so the company’s price is flexible, especially benefiting from the upward cycle of coal prices outside China.
The dividend yield is as high as 6.5%, highlighting the investment value. In order to sincerely repay the long-term support of the majority of investors, the company distributed a cash dividend of 1.60 yuan / share in 2021 and a special cash dividend of 0.40 yuan / share to the shareholders, with a total cash dividend of 2.00 yuan / share, the maximum amount of dividend over the years. Based on the total issued share capital of the company, it is estimated that a total of 9.897 billion yuan will be distributed, with a dividend ratio of 60.9%; At the closing price on March 30, the dividend yield was as high as 6.5%.
Diversified expansion and full growth potential in the future. Coal: in November 2021, yingpanhao mine obtained the mining license and officially entered the trial production stage from the construction mine, which is expected to promote the continuous growth of output. In the long run, the company’s coal production capacity has great growth potential and wants to transform to multi mineral development; The development strategy outline of the company proposes that the coal output scale will reach 300 million tons / year in 5-10 years (an increase of 76.5% compared with the production capacity of 170 million tons / year); At the same time, on the basis of a variety of existing non coal mine assets, expand the fields of molybdenum, gold, copper, iron, potassium and other minerals, and realize the transformation from single coal mining to multi mineral development. Coal chemical industry: the second phase of the company’s coal chemical industry project was completed and put into operation at the beginning of the year, and the output of methanol and ethylene glycol of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) energy chemical industry is expected to continue to increase; In the long run, the company’s development strategy outline proposes to strive for an annual output of more than 20 million tons of chemicals in 5-10 years, of which new chemical materials and high-end chemicals account for more than 70%. The long-term output of the company’s chemical industry is expected to double, and the products have the characteristics of high-end and high added value. In the future, the company will go deep into high-end Chemical & new materials in the province, continue to expand the production base of chemical raw materials outside the province, further promote the transformation of coal from single fuel to equal emphasis on fuel and raw materials, and from carbon emission to carbon fixation, so as to realize a gorgeous turn. New energy: the company wants to rely on the advantages of the existing coal chemical industry to orderly develop downstream hydrogen production and other industries. Strive to achieve an installed capacity of more than 10 million kilowatts of new energy power generation and a hydrogen supply capacity of more than 100000 tons / year in 5-10 years. Up to now, the company is developing in the introduction period, accelerating the cultivation and development of Fengwei photoelectric and other projects in Inner Mongolia, starting the preliminary work of centralized photovoltaic projects in the province, carrying out special research and development of energy storage technology, and continuously accumulating technology and resource advantages.
Investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 28.09 billion yuan, 30.24 billion yuan and 32.38 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 568 yuan, 6.11 yuan and 6.54 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 6.7, 6.2 and 5.8, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply, the production progress of Mines under construction is less than expected, and there is uncertainty in the development of new materials.
