\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations and the profit quality is optimized. According to the annual report released by the company, the company's revenue / performance increased by 1.4% / 84.5% to 15.42/1.49 billion yuan in 2021. 1) Under the comparable standard (excluding the impact of kidiliz business, the same below), according to the announcement of the company, we estimate that the performance will increase by 14.1% in 2021, and we estimate that the income will increase by about 10% in 2021. 2) In terms of Q4 alone, the revenue / performance of 2021q4 decreased by 6.2% / 7.8% to RMB 5.4 billion / 540 million respectively, mainly due to the impact of epidemic fluctuations and less than expected weather. 3) The quality of profits was significantly optimized. The annual gross profit margin was + 2.2pcts to 42.6%. We judged that it was mainly due to the improvement of brand strength, the increase of product price increase rate and the optimization of discount at the same time. The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable in the future; The sales / management expense ratio was - 0.1pcts / - 1.4pcts to 21.9% / 4.0% respectively, and the net interest rate increased by 4.4pcts to 9.6%.
Children's clothing is stable, and adult clothing is being adjusted and restored. By brand: 1) children's wear business focuses on product upgrading and promotes digital transformation. In 2021, children's clothing revenue increased by 1.4% year-on-year to 10.27 billion. We estimate that children's clothing business increased by 10% year-on-year under comparable caliber. The number of stores in the whole year increased by 110 to 5744, of which many opened in the second half of the year. 2) In the continuous recovery of adult leisure clothing business, the brand positioning and style were further clarified, and the research and development of product fabrics were strengthened. In 2021, the sales revenue increased slightly by 1.4% to 5.03 billion yuan; The net number of stores decreased from 268 to 2823, and the channel structure was further optimized and the terminal image was improved.
The e-commerce business embraces the live track and upgrades the offline image. From the perspective of different channels: 1) online platforms have been broadened and new retail channels have developed rapidly. The company's online revenue reached 6 billion 460 million yuan in 2021, up 13.1% from 2020 (comparable to the standard), and gross margin +4.7PCTs to 37.4%. We judged that online discount was optimized, tiktok and other new retail channels were relatively high, and the scale of new retail channels such as jitter was growing rapidly. 2) Optimize offline channel structure and promote global operation. The company's offline direct / franchise / joint venture revenue is RMB 1.40/68.2/620 billion respectively, the sales of comparable caliber are - 3% / + 8% / + 42% respectively, the gross profit margin is + 8.3 / + 0.4 / + 9.7pcts to 66.5% / 40.0% / 70.7% respectively, and the net number of stores is + 100 / - 281 / + 23 respectively. While opening and closing large stores and optimizing the channel structure, we refined the operation, deepened the product reform around consumers, focused on social retail, and promoted the flexible reform of the supply chain. We judge that the improvement of brand strength and management efficiency is expected to continue to contribute to the growth of store efficiency in the future.
The stock age structure is healthy and the cash flow turnover is good. 1) The age structure is healthy. At present, the company's clothing inventory turnover days are 155 days, and the clothing inventory is about 100 million pieces, of which the inventory amount of more than one year accounts for more than 80%. 2) Good cash flow management. In 2021, the turnover days of accounts receivable will be reduced by 7 days to 33 days; The net cash flow from operating activities was 2.08 billion yuan, which was 1.4 times of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the same period.
The annual business is expected to grow steadily. The company adjusts and optimizes its operation ideas, pays attention to the omni-channel operation based on traffic, and continuously innovates and extends the style of products. We judge that the flow of children's wear / casual wear in 2022 is expected to grow steadily year-on-year, and the main business income / performance is expected to continue to recover.
Investment advice. The company adjusted its business development. Under the influence of the external environment, we adjusted our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.622/18.55/2.077 billion, with the current price of RMB 6.65, corresponding to 11 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; The reform of Senma brand business is less than expected; Channel expansion is less than expected; Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
