\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 242 Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) )
Core view
Affected by the industry and raw materials, the operation is under pressure throughout the year Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) 2021 achieved revenue of 10.54 billion / - 6.1%, net profit attributable to parent company of 750 million / - 20.7% and non net profit attributable to parent company of 600 million / - 12.3%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.51 billion yuan / - 15.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million yuan / - 72.2%, and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million yuan / - 35.8%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 10 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and the dividend payment rate is 102.9%. Affected by the industry and the high base in the same period, the company's revenue is under pressure, but it still increases by 12.7% compared with 2019; The profit of enterprises is affected by the high price of raw materials.
The growth of export sales is relatively strong, while domestic sales are under pressure, but the performance of cooking utensils is beautiful. The company's export revenue in 2021 was 1.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%. The growth of export revenue is mainly due to the substantial growth of sharkninja related party transactions and the growth of the company's own export channels. In 2021, Jiuyang sold 1.19 billion to JS affiliates, with a year-on-year increase of 60.3%; Export sales through its own channels reached 270 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%. In 2021h2, due to the impact of shipping, the growth rate of related sales slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% to 660 million. However, according to the announcement, the sales volume of JS related party transactions from October 26 to December 31 was 360 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and Q4 export may improve. In terms of domestic sales, the company's domestic sales revenue in 2021 decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 9.08 billion. The annual Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) revenue of the company is - 4.2% / - 8.6% to 6.17 billion / 4.37 billion respectively. The pressure on online channels is expected to be affected by the diversion of e-commerce. At the same time, the competition is still fierce under the pressure of the industry; Offline is expected to be affected by the assessment and adjustment of dealers. By category, the income of food processing machine series decreased by 17.9% to 4.35 billion, and decreased by 20.5% in the second half of the year; The revenue of nutrition pot series increased by 11.9% to 3.83 billion, down 8.5% in the second half of the year; The revenue of western style electrical appliances decreased by 13.5% year-on-year to 1.33 billion, and the decline narrowed to - 8.4% in the second half of the year; The revenue of cookware series increased by 68.7% to 750 million, and the growth rate in the second half of the year increased to 94.5%. Under the influence of raw material costs, the company's profits were squeezed. Affected by the cost of raw materials and the transfer in cost of transportation expenses, the gross profit margin of the company decreased by 4.3pct to 27.8% year-on-year in 2021. Excluding the impact of transportation cost adjustment, the gross profit margin of the company under the same caliber was 30.5%, a year-on-year decrease of only 1.6pct; Based on this calculation, the gross profit margin of Q4 decreased by 2.0pct year-on-year under the same caliber. On the expense side, the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.6pct to 15.0%. Under the same caliber, the sales expense ratio is expected to increase by 1.1pct year-on-year; The management expense ratio was reduced by 0.2pct to 3.3%, the financial expense ratio was favorable by the sharp decline in exchange gains and losses, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pct to - 0.2%, and the R & D expense increased by 0.3pct to 3.4%. Under the combined impact, the company's net profit margin fell 1.5pct to 6.7% year-on-year. Q4's net profit margin fell 4.9pct to 1.9%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the increase of sales expenses and raw material costs.
Risk warning: the promotion of new products is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials has risen sharply. Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
Considering that the cost pressure of raw materials still exists, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 830 / 990 / 1070 million (the previous value was 1090 / 12.9 / 1360 million), with a year-on-year growth rate of 12 / 18 / 8%; Diluted EPS = 1.09/1.28/1.39 yuan, corresponding to PE = 15 / 13 / 12x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
