\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved a revenue of 207187 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 34.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.73%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.834 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 70%; The gross profit margin fell 3.98pct to 12.37% year-on-year, which is located in the center of performance forecast. Among them, 4q achieved a revenue of 71.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.01%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.501 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 46.07%, and the gross profit margin increased by 2.49pct to 14.47%. Among them, Kerry Logistics contributed 370 million yuan of non net profit deduction. If excluding the impact of 21q4 consolidation of Kerry Logistics, the non net profit deduction of Q4 was about 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%.
Quarterly improvement of profitability: on the whole, the annual revenue increased by 35% in 2021, but the net profit decreased by 70% after deducting non-profit. The main reasons are as follows: 1) 21q1 company increased the investment in network resources such as site, equipment and transportation capacity to cope with the high growth of parts volume and alleviate the bottleneck of production capacity; 2) During the 21q1 epidemic, in response to the call of the Spring Festival to celebrate the new year in place, the number of employees on duty and subsidies increased, resulting in an increase in labor costs; 3) The economic express products with lower pricing grow rapidly, which puts some pressure on the overall profit margin; 4) In 2020, the company will enjoy more preferential tax relief related to national anti epidemic, and these preferential policies will end in 2021. After experiencing the low performance of 21q1, the company actively adjusted its business strategy, continued to promote customer stratification and product structure optimization, and steadily promoted the cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures. In addition to the strengthening of industry supervision, the express industry as a whole warmed up, and its profitability improved steadily quarter by quarter. The performance of the company has improved significantly since Q2. The net profit deducted from Q1-Q4 is – 1.13 billion yuan, 660 million yuan, 810 million yuan and 1.5 billion yuan respectively. The performance of the company is gradually repaired.
The express business grew steadily: in 2021, the company’s express business revenue was 128.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, accounting for 62% of the total revenue; The business volume reached 10.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, and still achieved steady growth under the high base period of 2020. Specifically, 1) economic express achieved a revenue of 32.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%, mainly due to the introduction of cost-effective services suitable for the service quality and price needs of e-commerce customers. At the same time, Fengwang, a franchise system in 2021, is in the initial starting stage, completing the coverage of 12 provinces and 140 cities and 884 franchise sites, and independently putting into operation 10 transit sites to promote the improvement of e-commerce parts. 2) Time express achieved a revenue of 96.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, benefiting from the efficient response demand of personal goods, business documents, medium and high-end consumption and manufacturing production and circulation. Among them, consumer goods accounted for more than 45%, and maternal and infant products, personal care cosmetics and drinks increased better.
The proportion of new business increased to 38%: the proportion of new business of 2021 company increased to 38% from 28.2% in 2020, and the revenue of express transportation reached 23.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%; Cold transport ranked first in the “top 100 list of China’s cold chain logistics” for three consecutive years, with a revenue of 7.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; The largest independent third-party real-time distribution service platform in China grew in the same city, with a revenue of 5 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1%. After the merger and acquisition of Kerry Logistics in October 2021, the company’s supply chain and international business developed rapidly, realizing a revenue of 39.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.8%.
The gross profit margin fell by 4% and the expense rate fell by 0.3%. In 2021, the gross profit margin fell 4pct to 12.37% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the relatively low economy. The rapid growth of express business had an impact on the overall average ticket revenue. However, as the company continued to improve product stratification, formulate targeted market strategies, optimize product structure and improve product pricing ability, the single ticket revenue of 21q4 rebounded to 16.05 yuan / piece. Q1-Q4 single ticket revenue decreased by 13.24%, 13.4%, 7.38% and 1.47% year-on-year respectively, and the decline gradually narrowed. It is expected that the single ticket revenue will stop falling and rise in 2022. In terms of expense rate, the comprehensive expense rate decreased by 0.3%, of which the management expense decreased by 0.28% to 7.25% year-on-year, and the R & D and sales expense rate decreased by 0.09% year-on-year.
Profit forecast: under strict policy supervision, the price war eased, the industry began to compete for services, and the company’s direct marketing model has inherent advantages. Considering the repeated epidemics in many parts of the country and the rise of oil prices since March, the development tone of the company in 2022 is stable. It is expected that the express delivery in the whole year is expected to continue to grow steadily. At the same time, the company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization brought by the four networks financing and fine operation. In addition, Ezhou airport is expected to be put into trial operation in the first half of 2022, which will provide a strong growth power for timeliness, international business and supply chain. The bargaining power of the company’s products is up, the cost is optimized, and the performance repair flexibility is large. It is estimated that in 2022 and 2023, the net profit will be 6.974 billion yuan and 8.997 billion yuan, yoy respectively + 64% and + 29%, and the EPS will be 1.42 yuan and 1.83 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of a share price is 31 times and 24 times respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected, fuel costs rise, etc
