\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 960 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) )
Event: the company announced that in 2021, the revenue was 3.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.21%; After deduction, it was 513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%. The company distributed 140 million yuan in cash and increased 4 shares for every 10 shares.
The revenue in a single quarter accelerated quarter by quarter, and the real operating net cash flow continued to improve. Performance: according to the contents of the company’s annual report, the revenue in 2021 was 3.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.21%; After deduction, it was 513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%, and the performance was in line with our expectations. Quarterly, the revenue growth rate of Q2, Q3 and Q4 in a single quarter was 39.92%, 41.30% and 52.20% respectively, accelerating quarter by quarter; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.67%, – 4.41% and 45.23% respectively; The growth rates after deducting non-profit items were 13.56%, 8.90% and 54.44% respectively. Gross profit margin: the overall gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 37.14%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points compared with 2020, mainly due to: 1) the revenue of general fire alarm system was 2.471 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.88%. In the face of rising raw material prices, chip shortage and rising labor costs, the gross profit margin decreased by 2.07 percentage points; 2) The revenue of emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation system was 660 million yuan, with a growth rate of 266.21%. Since the gross profit margin of this business was 3.04 percentage points lower than that of general motors, the performance of gross profit margin was affected after rapid volume; 3) The automatic fire extinguishing system (with a revenue of RMB 334 million, accounting for 8.64% of the total revenue) was seriously affected by the rise in the price of raw materials, which dragged down the performance of gross profit margin. Cash flow: the net operating cash flow in 2021 was 195 million yuan, but we noticed that the company’s prepayment + inventory totaled 803 million yuan, an increase of 435 million yuan compared with 2020. The main reason is that the company made arrangements to prepare goods and lock long orders in advance in response to scale expansion and changes in the external environment. Therefore, after adding back this amount, the actual operating net cash flow of the company in 2021 matched the growth rate of income, and the cash flow situation continued to improve.
R & D expenses continued to increase, and industrial and overseas business progress exceeded expectations. 1) R & D: from 2019 to 2021, the R & D expenses of the company were RMB 116 million, RMB 138 million and RMB 186 million respectively, with a compound growth rate of 29.44% in three years; There are 331 R & D personnel, an increase of 40.85% compared with 2020. 2) Industrial fire protection: the company achieved a revenue of 36 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 225.67%. In 2021, as the first year for the company to break through the industrial fire protection market, the company successively won the bid, including Hebei Tianzhu iron and Steel Group, Zhongtian iron and steel green high-quality steel project, Hejin Sunshine Group Ankun energy chemical project, Qingdao BAIC Laixi plant, State Grid Jiangsu, Sichuan Fulin new energy new energy lithium battery cathode material project and other industrial fire protection projects. In terms of energy storage, it has successively won the bid for the American broadreach power independent power producer project, multi specification energy storage container gas fire extinguishing system project, etc. 3) Overseas business: the revenue was 334 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129333%, and the gross profit margin was 49.17%, significantly higher than the Chinese level.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we adjusted the company’s EPS from 2.08 and 2.69 yuan to 2.02 and 2.74 yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the EPS in 2024 will be 3.67 yuan, corresponding to 21, 15 and 11 times of PE in 20222024 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk tip: the decline of industry demand and the intensification of competition lead to the continuous decline of product price and gross profit margin
