\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
Key investment points
The performance increased by 328% year-on-year, and the volume and price of high nickel cathode materials rose simultaneously
In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 170.36% year-on-year, mainly due to the significant increase in the demand for new energy vehicles and power batteries, the company’s full orders for high nickel products, the release of new production capacity led to the increase of sales volume, and the sales volume of high nickel series 8, 9 and NCA exceeded 50000 tons, resulting in the increase of superimposed selling price. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 327.59% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of the lithium industry increased by 3.52 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the improvement of capacity utilization, cost reduction and efficiency increase driven by scale effect, and the improvement of supply chain management and self supply rate of precursors. In terms of products, the revenue of cathode materials in 2021 was 9.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 172.48%, and the gross profit margin increased by 3.26 percentage points year-on-year; The income of precursors was 154 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.03%, and the gross profit margin increased by 3.83 percentage points year-on-year.
Capacity expansion ensures that the sales volume of cathode is doubled, and the self supply rate of products is continuously improved
In 2021, the company’s high nickel ternary cathode production capacity was greatly expanded, and the production capacity increased from 40000 t / a at the beginning of the year to 120000 T / a at the end of the year, of which the production capacity of Ezhou in Hubei exceeded 100000 t / A. The company’s new production line can produce high nickel products on a large scale. In 2021, the sales volume of positive electrode increased by 99% year-on-year, and 9 series ultra-high nickel products began to be shipped in batches. In terms of precursor supply guarantee, in 2021, the precursor output increased by 243% year-on-year, and the self supply rate to the positive electrode increased to about 30%. The company is constantly strengthening the upstream layout. In February 2022, the company and Gem Co.Ltd(002340) agreed that the company will purchase no less than 300000 tons of precursors from 2022 to 2026; In November 2021, the company and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) agreed to purchase 415000 tons of precursors from 2022 to 2025 and strengthen the development cooperation of upstream nickel cobalt resources.
There are abundant orders from high-quality customers, and the R & D and mass production of new products are promoted smoothly
The company has abundant customer resources and full orders on hand. According to the announcement of the company, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will purchase about 100000 tons of high nickel ternary cathode materials in 2022, and Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) will purchase about 30000 tons. The company is also a supplier of honeycomb energy, skon, SDI, northvolt and other head battery enterprises. The company has made continuous breakthroughs in high nickel route and cost reduction. In the trial production of new high nickel products of ni90, ni96 new product development, diversified high energy density NCMA, 6-series low-cost single crystal development and other products are in the production line commissioning stage, and the new product research and development is progressing smoothly.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading enterprise of ternary cathode, with continuous breakthroughs in the production and research of high nickel products. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is 2.064 billion yuan, 3.089 billion yuan and 4.338 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS in 22-24 years is 4.61, 6.90 and 9.68 yuan / share respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 30, 20 and 14 times respectively. Give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the development risk of new technologies and new products; The digestion of new capacity is less than expected
