\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 88 Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co.Ltd(300188) )
Event: on March 29, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 311 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.06%; The net profit of non parent company deduction was 273 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.85%.
Performance is under pressure in the short term, but the main influencing factors are short-term impact. In 2021, the growth rate of the company's revenue slowed down and the growth rate of net profit decreased by 17%, mainly due to two reasons: 1) affected by the covid-19 epidemic in 2021, customers took corresponding control measures, resulting in the slowdown of the progress, implementation rhythm and acceptance of business opportunities orders such as big data and on-hand orders; 2) The company actively expanded new network security, new smart city and information innovation business, resulting in a large increase in R & D expenses. In 2021, the R & D expenses reached 449 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.94%. Moreover, the outsourcing costs of some businesses, such as network security, have increased, resulting in a decrease in the gross profit margin of relevant businesses. However, the impact of the epidemic is a short-term factor, and the increase of relevant expenses brought by new business development is an inevitable phenomenon in the business development period. It is expected to remain stable in the long term with the maturity of the business. The above two factors do not constitute the long-term development pressure of the company.
The network security business expanded smoothly, and the growth rate of the network security industry in the post epidemic cycle is expected to return to normal. The company's revenue sources are mainly Cyberspace Security Products (accounting for 54.48%), big data intelligent products (accounting for 38.47%), network open source intelligence products (accounting for 3.17%), intelligent equipment manufacturing (accounting for 1.44%) and support services (accounting for 2.44%). Among them, cyberspace security products were the main driving force for the growth of the company in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 22.65%, mainly due to the smooth expansion of cyberspace security products. The company itself is a leading enterprise in the field of electronic forensics and big data application of judicial administrative organs. It has profound experience in data governance and customer service ability. In the past, its core business was electronic data forensics and big data intelligent application products, which were mainly used in judicial administrative organs and other fields. In recent years, the company's core business has maintained steady growth. With the products and service ability accumulated in the field of judicial administration, Expand the business to the field of network security products and services that are also data governance. At present, the expansion of the company's network security products is smooth and has been preliminarily recognized by customers. The downstream scope of the field of network security is wider and has more space. According to the documents of the Ministry of industry and information technology, it is expected that the growth rate of China's network security industry is expected to exceed 15% in 2023, and the industry is still in a period of rapid development. With its perfect product pedigree, deep cultivation experience in the field of data governance and the background of shareholders' state-owned assets, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the increasing trend of network security demand in the development of digital economy in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: in the post epidemic period, the growth rate of the network security industry is expected to return to normal, firmly optimistic about the sustainable development trend of the company in the advantageous fields such as electronic forensics and network security big data, and the new field is expected to make a certain breakthrough in the next year. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 412 million yuan, 524 million yuan and 650 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.51, 0.65 and 0.81 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE values of 31, 25 and 20 times from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the development of network security market is less than expected, the promotion of product technology research and development is less than expected, and the effect of new business expansion is less than expected.
