\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
Core view
The annual performance of 2021 increased by 20%, which was consistent with the performance express, and performed well under the epidemic. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 3.890 billion yuan / + 18.33%, and the performance attributable to the parent company was 558 million yuan / + 20.28%; Deduct non performance of 526 million yuan / + 16.69%, which is basically consistent with the performance express, eps0.01% 99 yuan, which is expected to exceed the performance assessment target of the company’s first round of stock option incentive plan (20192021). In 2021q4, the company’s revenue is 874 million yuan / + 20.58%, the parent company’s performance is 114 million yuan / + 9.50%, and the deduction of non performance is 95 million yuan / + 4.42%. Considering 2020q4, due to the late Mid Autumn Festival and the low base, the company’s 2021q4 growth is still stable. At present, the proportion of shares held by the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect has increased to 2.90%.
Due to capacity constraints, the growth rate of quick freezing slowed down, the growth of moon cakes was steady, and catering recovered significantly. In 2021, the company’s food business realized a revenue of 3.052 billion yuan / + 13.22%. Among them, the quick freezing income was 848 million yuan / + 9.40%, mainly due to the production capacity constraints and the impact of the high base in the first half of the year, and the growth of quick freezing income returned to 20% in the second half of the year; The income of moon cake is 1.521 billion yuan / + 10.36%, which remains stable; The annual income of other foods was 753 million yuan / + 23.62%. Catering revenue of 725 million yuan / + 48.32%, mainly driven by the consolidation of taotaoju 2021.7.1 and the opening and resumption of seven stores under the epidemic, but the effect of new stores has not been fully reflected due to the impact of the epidemic.
The layout of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels inside and outside the province was accelerated. In 2021, the sales outside the province reached 893 million yuan / + 16.05%, mainly driven by the strengthening of e-commerce channels and the development of markets outside the province; Revenue in Guangdong Province increased by 19.33%, mainly driven by catering. By the end of 2021, the company had a total of 1011 dealers, a net increase of 168 compared with the beginning of the year, including 112 dealers outside the province (excluding overseas), with a relatively rapid growth.
The continuous release of production capacity builds a foundation, and the layout outside the province is expected to speed up. 1) In terms of production capacity, the company’s four bases in Guangzhou, Xiangtan, Maoming and Meizhou complement each other in terms of cross regional advantageous products. Among them, Meizhou phase I has been officially put into operation, and the subsequent production capacity is expected to be gradually released. The phase II quick freezing production project of Xiangtan base is under design; 2) In terms of channel expansion, the company actively explored Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales channels in 2021, and the e-commerce revenue increased by nearly 30%. At the same time, the company announced in March this year that it planned to establish a joint venture with Honghui Jiama company to accelerate the penetration of both sides in the East China market, which is expected to help the company speed up its expansion outside the province; 3) In terms of catering, taotaoju will help with the recovery and growth in the future and the subsequent extension and expansion.
Risk tip: macro, epidemic and other risks, food hygiene and safety, acquisition and integration, insufficient capacity release.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.12/1.41/1.63 yuan (it was 1.12/1.31 yuan in the previous 22-23 years, which will remain unchanged in 2022. In 2023, considering the release of production capacity, the accelerated layout in East China and the recovery of catering taotaoju, it will be slightly increased), corresponding to the PE valuation of 19 / 15 / 13X in 22-24 years. The company’s moon cake business has built a basic performance base. In the future, with the continuous release of production capacity in Meizhou, Xiangtan and other bases and the expansion of multiple channels inside and outside the province, the growth of food business will be supported. The recovery and expansion of catering after taotaoju’s consolidation are interesting, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
