\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview
The company released the annual report of 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 75.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.0%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 20.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.8% and a month on month increase of - 3.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.8% and a month on month increase of + 116.6%.
Analysis and judgment:
Steady growth in revenue driven by strong product cycle
The company's total revenue maintained steady growth, mainly due to the rapid increase of new products of aian and GAC motor. In 2021, the company successively ushered in new / upgraded products of shadow leopard, GS4 and gs4plus, and aiony, aionsplus and aionvplus were also listed in 2021. The performance of new and replacement products was brilliant, driving the steady increase in sales. Among them, GAC motor's annual sales reached 324000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%; The annual sales volume of aian was 120000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 101.8%. Q4's revenue fell slightly month on month, mainly due to the concentration of double point revenue on Q3 recognition, resulting in a high base, and the sales volume of independent models still increased month on month.
Joint venture improved self pressure, and profits increased rapidly
The company's profit increased rapidly, and Q4 net profit increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 5.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, of which Q4 net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 216.1% and a month on month increase of 163.6%. The independent gross profit margin increased steadily, and the loss still increased. The cost of main raw materials rose sharply in 2021, and the gross profit margin of the company's independent passenger cars rose against the trend, reaching 4.1%, year-on-year + 1.5pct. We judged that it was mainly due to the improvement of product structure and double integral income. At the profit level, the autonomous net loss increased in 2021. According to the caliber of net profit investment income, the autonomous net loss in 2021 was 4.48 billion yuan, an increase of 530 million yuan year-on-year. The joint venture gradually recovered from the lack of core, driving the accelerated improvement of profits. The company's investment income in 2021 reached 11.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.2%; The net profit of single vehicle under 50% equity of the joint venture increased from 6000 yuan in 2020 to 7000 yuan. The sales volume of 2021q4 joint venture increased significantly month on month, driving the rapid growth of performance. The sales volume of GAC Toyota and GAC Honda in 2021q4 were + 47.1% and + 30.7% month on month respectively. The company's single quarter investment income reached 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.1% and a month on month increase of + 98.2%. We expect that in 2022, with the improvement of chip supply, the joint venture is expected to usher in additional libraries, and the new products of GAC motor and ai'an will continue to expand. We are optimistic that the company will usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and price this year and accelerate the improvement of profits.
The implementation of the mixed transformation scheme accelerates the take-off of ea'an
The mixed reform plan of Ethiopia and Angola has been implemented to seek independent listing. Since its establishment in 2017, the recognition of the product end has been continuously improved since its development. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume reached 120200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 101.8%. In terms of production capacity, the second phase of production capacity expansion was completed in February this year, and now it has a production capacity of 200000 vehicles / year. The sales growth has driven into the fast lane and accelerated the group's electric transformation. Electric smart overweight, valuation is expected to usher in reshaping. According to the scale and share ratio of this non-public financing, the valuation of GAC AIAN after the capital increase is about 39.2 billion yuan. The revenue of aian in 2021 is 17.27 billion yuan, corresponding to 2.3 times of PS. it is underestimated compared with other new forces. We believe that the spin off of aian is expected to usher in the reshaping of valuation.
Investment advice
As the leader of the first-line Japanese joint venture brand, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of demand for replacement and additional purchase; With the continuous improvement of independent competitiveness, the replacement of fuel vehicles is accelerated under the drive of hybrid and intelligent dual core. The product strength of ai'an continues to be verified, and the mixed reform stimulates the vitality of state-owned enterprises, which is expected to take off with the help of the capital market. Maintaining the company's profit forecast for 20222023, it is estimated that the total revenue in 20222023 will be 86.26/98.1 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 will be 9.98/11.76 billion yuan. Due to the change of share capital caused by debt to equity swap, the corresponding EPS will be adjusted from 0.96/1.14 yuan to 0.95/1.12 yuan. It is estimated that the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 106.18 billion yuan and 12.7 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 1.21 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 11.28 yuan / share of A-Shares on March 30, 2022, and PE of 12 / 10 / 9 times, maintaining the "buy" rating of A-Shares of the company.
Risk tips
The sales volume of joint venture models is lower than expected; The profit of independent brand is less than expected; The mitigation of core failure is lower than expected.
