\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 242 Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) )
The performance in 2021 is under short-term pressure. We are optimistic about the performance recovery under the strategic transformation and maintain the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company's revenue was 10.54 billion yuan (- 6.09%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 746 million yuan (- 20.69%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 3.509 billion yuan (- 15.27%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 82 million yuan (- 72.16%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 50 million yuan (- 35.9%). The non recurring profit and loss mainly came from the income from land acquisition and storage of 159 million yuan in the same period. Considering that the price of raw materials is still high, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 826 / 935 / 1069 million yuan (the original value of 20222023 is 1148 / 1305 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 1.08/1.22/1.39 yuan, and the current share price will be 15.2/13.4/11.7 times that of PE. Considering that the company's strategic transformation such as retail sales orientation is expected to drive the recovery of performance and maintain the "buy" rating.
Affected by the high base and industry boom, the core categories are under pressure, and the growth of cooking utensils is outstanding
In terms of categories, the revenue growth of the company's food processing machines / nutritional cookers / western small household appliances / cookers in 2021 was - 17.87% / + 11.87% / - 13.49% / + 68.7% respectively. The growth of core categories was under pressure due to the impact of high base and industry boom, and the growth of newly expanded cookers was bright. In terms of sub regions, the growth rate of domestic / overseas revenue of the company in 2021 was - 11.73% / + 56.09% respectively. Looking forward to 2022, according to the announcement of related party transactions of the company, it is expected that the amount of goods sold to jsgobal in 2022 will not exceed 211 million US dollars, and the export is expected to maintain steady growth.
Rising raw material prices put short-term pressure on gross profit, driving the decline of net interest rate
Affected by the rising price of raw materials and the change of accounting standards, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 27.79% (- 4.27pcts), excluding the impact of the change of accounting standards, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 30.5% (- 1.55pcts), and the gross profit margin for domestic sales was 34.24% (+ 0.29pcts). On the expense side, the company's sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate in 2021 was -1.65pcts / -0.22pcts / + 0.31pcts respectively year-on-year. After excluding the impact of changes in accounting standards, the company's sales expense rate in 2021 was + 1.07pcts year-on-year. Under the comprehensive influence, the company's net interest rate in 2021 is 7.07% (- 1.3%).
It is proposed to launch the first phase of employee stock ownership plan and be optimistic about performance growth under strategic transformation such as retail dynamic sales orientation
In order to mobilize business vitality, the company plans to launch the first phase of employee stock ownership plan, which includes senior executives and core managers of the company. It is worth noting that 2021q4 company will change the shipping assessment to the retail dynamic sales assessment, cooperate with the one inventory mode to shorten the sales link, the overall channel efficiency is expected to be improved, and it is optimistic about the resilience of performance recovery.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises; The recovery of industry prosperity is less than expected; Weak overseas demand, etc.
