\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
On the evening of March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the total revenue in 2021 was 109464 billion yuan (+ 11.71%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.460 billion yuan (+ 12.34%).
Key investment points
The acceleration is obvious in the fourth quarter, and the reservoir is obvious
According to the annual report, the company’s 2021q4 revenue was 32.411 billion yuan, an increase of 14% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, an increase of 18% at the same time; Deduct 15.224 billion yuan of non-profit, an increase of 16% at the same time. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 91.5% (with an increase of 0.1pct), of which 2021q4 was 92.37% (with an increase of 0.7pct), which was caused by price increase and product structure optimization. The net interest rate in 2021 was 52.47% (with an increase of 0.3pct), of which 2021q4 was 51.18% (with an increase of 2pct). In 2021, the sales expense was 2.737 billion yuan (with an increase of 7%), which was due to the increase of the company’s Maotai flavor series liquor advertising and market development expenses; In 2021, the management cost was 8.45 billion yuan (with an increase of 24%), which was due to the increase of employee compensation and maintenance costs of the company. In 2021, the cash flow from operating activities was 64 billion yuan (an increase of 24%), which was 119321 billion yuan in cash from the company’s sales of goods and provision of labor services, an increase of 11.5%.
At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 12.718 billion yuan, with a ring increase of 3.581 billion yuan and a decrease of 600 million yuan. Business objectives for 2022: first, the total operating revenue increased by about 15% over the previous year; Second, 6.969 billion yuan was invested in capital construction.
The proportion of direct sales continued to increase, and the ton price of series liquor increased significantly
In terms of volume and price, the sales volume will be 66400 tons in 2021, an increase of 3.7% at the same time; The corresponding ton price is 1.6 million yuan / ton, an increase of 8% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.465 billion yuan (with an increase of 10.22%), the sales volume was 36300 tons (with an increase of 5.7%), and the corresponding ton price was 2.575 million yuan / ton (with an increase of 4.1%); The revenue of series liquor was 12.595 billion yuan (with an increase of 26.1%), the sales volume was 30200 tons (with an increase of 1.5%), and the corresponding ton price was 417000 yuan / ton (with an increase of 24.5%).
In terms of channels, the direct sales revenue in 2021 was 24.03 billion yuan (with an increase of 81.5%), accounting for 22.7% (with an increase of 8pct) and the gross profit margin was 96.12% (with an increase of 0.5pct); The revenue of wholesale channels was 82.03 billion yuan (with an increase of 0.6%) and the gross profit margin was 90.30% (with a decrease of 0.5cpt). In terms of subregions, China’s revenue in 2021 was 103.44 billion yuan, an increase of 12% at the same time; Foreign revenue was 2.62 billion yuan, an increase of 8% at the same time; By the end of 2021, there were 2193 distributors, including 2089 in China, with a net increase of 43.
Recently, the company launched a new e-commerce platform – “I Maotai”, which is expected to be officially put into operation on March 31. At present, four products are planned to be launched: 53 degrees 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the renyin tiger), 53 degrees 500ml Maotai 1935, 53 degrees 375ml 2 (year of the renyin tiger), 53 degrees 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures). Pfizer is expected to launch later. The launch of the new e-commerce platform marks the acceleration of the company’s reform process, and the company is expected to enter the fast lane.
Maotai new measures, optimization and adjustment is an important aspect
At the end of August 2021, Ding Xiongjun became the chairman of Maotai and proposed the direction of the company’s reform: marketization and legalization, releasing positive signals.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the optimization and adjustment of Maotai was an important focus, which was mainly divided into price adjustment, product structure adjustment and channel structure adjustment. In terms of price, the company has cancelled the unpacking policy and returned to marketization. The wholesale price of whole Mao and scattered Mao is expected to continue to narrow. We expect Maotai to raise the price at least once during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In terms of product structure, we believe that the company will continue to adjust the proportion of non-standard products to drive the ton price increase. This is also confirmed by the price increase of non-standard products since this year; The product structure of series liquor will be continuously optimized, and the “big single product” strategy will be implemented internally. The “1 + n” big single product group with Maotai Prince liquor as the core, Han sauce and Guizhou Daqu have become 1 billion big single products. The adjustment of channel structure is another important focus during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the future, the dealer quota will remain unchanged, and the company will focus on developing direct channels (including self-supporting, e-commerce, supermarket and enterprise group purchase). Since 2018, the company has paid more attention to the launch of direct marketing channels, especially in peak seasons such as the Mid Autumn Festival, national day and Spring Festival. It has successively signed Maotai quotas with national supermarkets such as Yonghui, regional supermarkets such as Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , e-commerce such as tmall, jd.com and other non distribution channels, so as to increase the breadth, depth and frequency of contact with consumers and increase the bottle opening rate of Maotai in that year.
Profit forecast
We continue to be optimistic about the brand moat, the medium and long-term pattern of high-end liquor is still stable, and the role of Maotai sea god needle is still obvious. We expect that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 49.62/58.00/67.41 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 35 / 30 / 26 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, less than expected capacity expansion, less than expected growth of direct channels, less than expected reform process, rapid upward risk of pricing, etc.
