\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 298 Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) )
Event: the company released an annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 10.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.59%. Among them, single Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.06%.
The effect of Q4 price increase gradually appeared, and the overseas growth slowed down slightly. In 2021, Q1-Q4 revenue increased by 30% / 13% / 13% / 23% year-on-year, and q2-3 growth slowed down mainly due to: 1) high base in the same period last year; 2) Q1 price increase leads to some customers hoarding goods in advance; 3) Overseas freight rates rose and fell, and overseas business slowed down; 4) Repeated outbreaks in the third quarter put pressure on the b-end. The overall revenue growth of Q4 picked up, mainly due to the company’s large price increase due to the pressure of raw material cost. In terms of business, the revenue of yeast / sugar making / packaging was 8 / 11 / 400 million yuan respectively, of which the yeast business was + 15% year-on-year, remained stable, and the sugar making / packaging business was + 68% / 26% year-on-year, continuing the growth trend. By region, the revenue of China / foreign countries reached 7.8/2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22% / 12%. The overseas market slowed down due to factors such as freight. Sub channels: the company’s online / offline channels were + 12% / 24% year-on-year. After the epidemic, the overall b-end recovery led to the growth of offline channels.
Under the pressure of cost + freight, profitability is under pressure. In 2021, the company achieved a net profit margin of 12.38%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54 PCTs, and its profitability declined, mainly due to the decline of the company’s gross profit margin on the one hand. In 21 years, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.34%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.66pcts, mainly due to the rise of molasses cost and the rise of overseas freight. The company still adopted high price inventory in the second half of the year. Under the price increase again in the fourth quarter, the cost pressure is still great. On the other hand, the company’s sales / management / Finance / R & D expense ratio was 6.26% / 3.37% / 0.74% and 4.45% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.97 / – 0.14 / – 0.43 / + 0.13pct, and the expense ratio improved. On the whole, the sharp rise in molasses costs continues to put pressure on the profit side of the company. Looking forward to 22 years, the cost pressure remains, but the price increase effect is expected to gradually appear in the quarter.
The 14th five year plan shows the company’s strong confidence, short-term profit pressure does not change the company’s long-term core value. The company’s planned revenue in 2022 was 12.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.18%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.85%. The revenue maintained steady growth, but the profit side was still under pressure for a short time. We believe it is related to the high prices of molasses and freight. At present, the company is actively stabilizing the molasses cost cycle through the development of new sugar sources, the substitution of hydrolyzed sugar and the construction of molasses storage tanks. In the long run, the company’s revenue is planned to sprint 20 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan, with a compound growth rate of about 17%, showing a steady growth trend as a whole. We believe that the company is expected to continuously explore overseas markets through continuous capacity expansion, and accelerate the development of China’s derivatives business, so as to achieve the goal of 20 billion. With the gradual improvement of the company’s cost pressure, the continuous layout of global production capacity and the positive promotion of derivatives business, we believe that the profit side of the company is expected to gradually improve, and the overall trend may be accelerated quarter on quarter. At the same time, if the cost of molasses further increases, we expect that the company will still be able to raise prices and maintain profitability. The short-term profit of the company is under pressure, but the long-term good trend remains unchanged. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the medium and long-term value of the company.
Profit forecast: according to the company’s 21-year annual report and 22-year plan, the profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 12.7/14.8/17.3 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 18.99% / 16.28% / 17.36% (the value before 22 / 23 was 15.57% / 18.02%), and a net profit of 14.28/17.89/23.20 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.16% / 25.24% / 29.67% (the value before 22-23 was 18.90% / 24.41%), and EPS of 1.72/2.15/2.79 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety risks; Covid-19 epidemic risk; Risk of rising costs
