\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Key investment points
21q4 deducted 1.5 billion yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, and became positive for the first time year-on-year
On the revenue side, the total business volume of the company in 2021 was 10.55 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, and the operating revenue was 207187 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.55%. Among them, the traditional aging parts and economic parts contributed 62.0% of the revenue, and the other emerging sectors contributed 38.0% of the revenue. The overall business scale continued to expand, and the revenue growth of emerging formats is expected to accelerate.
At the gross profit end, the company improves the per capita operation efficiency by enabling the transfer collection and distribution link through science and technology. In addition, the four networks financing optimizes the resource utilization efficiency and drives the steady repair of the gross profit margin of logistics and freight forwarding business. The gross profit margin of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 is 6.9% / 12.8% / 13.2% / 14.5% respectively.
On the net profit side, the company’s performance improved significantly quarter by quarter. The net profit of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 deducted from non parent company was – 236.28% / – 74.86% / – 51.20% / + 46.07% respectively year-on-year. In the fourth quarter alone, the company deducted 1.501 billion yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company. If further excluding 371 million yuan of net profit attributable to the parent company contributed by Kerry Logistics, the comparable deduction of 1.13 billion yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%.
The traditional business is basically stable and the structure is optimized, and the emerging business is growing rapidly
Express business: benefiting from the company’s initiative to optimize the customer and product structure and significantly improve the competitive environment in the superimposed e-commerce parts market, 21h2 achieved a net profit of 2.854 billion yuan after caliber adjustment, accounting for 74.5% of the net profit of 3.832 billion yuan in 2021.
Express business: under the dual brand operation, the express network expanded rapidly, and the volume of goods maintained a rapid growth. The volume of express goods in 2021 increased by 47.8% year-on-year, and the scale of revenue ranked first in the industry for two consecutive years. In addition, benefiting from the optimization of price policy, the promotion of four networks financing and the improvement of scientific and technological enabling benefits, the company 21h2 has reached breakeven and is expected to usher in profit release in 22 years.
Intra city business: SF intra city has grown into the largest third-party real-time distribution service platform in China, with a revenue of 5 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%, and the number of annual active merchants and individual users increased by 55% and 106% respectively year-on-year. In addition, SF was successfully listed in Hong Kong at HK $16.42 per share in December 2021. In the future, it is expected to enjoy the high dividend of the industry by virtue of improving the product matrix and professional high-quality services.
Supply chain and international business: internally, SF continues to increase the size of the airport, fleet construction and route layout, and the ecological layout of Ezhou airport and transfer center is gradually improved. Its own full cargo aircraft have increased to 68, and 111 routes have been operated in the world; The acquisition of Kerry Logistics by SF International brings business capability synergy. It is expected that Kerry Logistics will act as the exclusive general freight sales agent of SF airlines from 22q2, further accelerating the expansion of SF international business. In 2021, the net profit of supply chain and international business reached 615 million yuan, which is expected to become an important profit growth pole in the future.
When the four networks financing is in progress, the cost reduction has achieved initial results
Since the beginning of 2021, the company has promoted the network financing and resource interoperability of express network, express network, warehouse network and Fengwang network. At present, the location layout has been optimized at the site end respectively, realizing the financing of 281 sites in the first and second tier cities and 162 sites in the third and fourth tier cities; Improve the sorting efficiency at the transfer end and release the transfer capacity of express about 400 million tickets; Integrate the delivery lines at the transportation end, improve the efficiency and loading rate, achieve the accommodation of more than 1600 trunk lines, and shorten the 3 + hour time of lifting and express products with a single load of more than 1 ton; The network partition is implemented at the dispatch end to realize the self dispatch of 142 cities by Fengwang express franchise stations. Looking forward to the future, the steady progress of the four networks financing strategy is expected to continuously consolidate the company’s business chassis, reduce costs, increase efficiency and shrink costs.
The fixed growth, acquisition and Ezhou hub projects have been promoted successively, and the moat has been built continuously
The company has a forward-looking layout and a long-term vision. In 2021, it successively realized the upgrading of the capacity and information system of the transit trunk line with a fixed increase and empowerment of A-Shares of 20 billion yuan, the acquisition of Kerry Logistics with HK $17.9 billion, the improvement of the international freight forwarding network, the spin off and listing of SF Hong Kong shares in the same city and the start of the verification flight of Ezhou airport. For the investment value of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , we believe that if only the traditional time effective business is anchored in the medium and long term, the elasticity is relatively limited. We should pay more attention to the future profit growth of new layout tracks such as international, express and supply chain, as well as the improvement of quality and efficiency of network financing on the cost side. Multi dimensional business continues to build a moat, and the subsequent main business profits may be repaired with high elasticity.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the impact of Kerry Logistics consolidated statement, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.587 billion yuan, 9.681 billion yuan and 11.462 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 28.7 times, 22.5 times and 19.0 times of the current share price PE respectively. The upgrading of business barriers continues to thicken the medium and long-term investment value of the company and maintain the “increased holding” rating.
Risk warning: capital expenditure and cost pressure continue to exceed expectations; The effect of four networks financing is lower than expected; Fluctuations in international trade and repeated outbreaks.
