\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 042 Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) )
Investment logic
The leading advantage is prominent, and the performance in the past 21 years has ushered in an inflection point: the company is mainly engaged in color spinning business, and the product fashion and environmental protection technology are better than ordinary yarn. As one of the industry duopoly, the company leads the industry in process technology, and the production capacity expansion is advancing steadily. It is estimated that 200000 ingots will be added every year; Upstream network chain business locks in high-quality cotton resources and improves business stability; Downstream cooperation with domestic brands was deepened, and domestic orders were increased to 60%; In the 21st year, the performance turned from loss to profit, and the annual net profit of the performance forecast was about 550630 million yuan. In October, the company issued 274 million non-public shares and raised 1.13 billion yuan, mainly for expanding production and replenishing working capital.
Digital intelligence reform and efficiency improvement have begun, and the growth space has been opened by relying on "cloud capacity": after the company piloted the industrial Internet platform in Aksu factory for 20 years, the equipment efficiency has increased to 97%, the output of finished products has increased by 10% and the management cost has decreased by 10%; By the end of the 21st century, the transformation of factories with a capacity of 1 million ingots had been completed, which is expected to be fully completed in 22 years, and the overall net interest rate is expected to increase by 2%. In the long term, the company plans to export digital solutions to the industry, complete orders by distributing high gross profit orders, binding resource platforms and raw material advantages with enterprises, and outsourcing production, so as to help the company realize asset light expansion and open the ceiling of scale growth.
From the socks industry to the downstream, business collaboration and digital empowerment: Alibaba Internet was established in 20 years. At present, its business includes private brand, brand authorization, OEM business and yarn management. In terms of brand, three matrices of kalala, isku and ilooklike have been formed to locate young personality groups. At present, the brand awareness of China's sock retail end has not yet taken shape, and it is expected to take the opportunity to quickly occupy the market. The company has built a digital intelligence platform to connect orders with small and medium-sized socks factories, integrate industry resources through intelligent order distribution, and improve management and operation efficiency. In terms of its own production capacity, the company currently has 2000 hosiery machines and plans to have 5000 in Aksu. It is planned to be put into operation in two batches in five years. It is expected to produce 300 million pairs of hosiery per year after the production.
Investment forecast and investment suggestions
The main business of color spinning has recovered significantly and the expansion of production capacity has been promoted in an orderly manner; While improving the efficiency of digital intelligence transformation, it is expected to extend to the industry, help the company light asset expansion and further open the scale space. It is predicted that the company's revenue from 21 to 23 years will be 19.162/22.320/24.485 billion yuan, an increase of 34.6% / 16.5% / 9.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.78/6.64/764 million yuan, an increase of 230.2% / 14.9% / 15.0%, corresponding to eps0.01% 34 / 0.39/0.45 yuan, giving the company 14 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 5.47 yuan / share, and giving the company a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Raw materials fell, terminal demand did not meet expectations, RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the ban on restricted shares was lifted.
