\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 661 Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) )
Event overview
The company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.33%.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the gross profit margin of semiconductor test probe revenue increased.
1) by product, in 2021, the company’s revenue from communication and other electronic parts was 198 million yuan / yoy + 23.76%, the revenue from semiconductor chip test probe field was 156 million yuan / yoy + 178.16%, and the company’s probe business achieved leapfrog development. 2) In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin and non net profit margin were 43.67% and 24.91% respectively, down 1.29 and 1.42 PCT respectively compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease of 4.41 PCT in the gross profit margin of the company’s communication and other electronic parts business; However, at the same time, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 7.48 percentage points to 46.39%. We judge that it is mainly due to the improvement of self-control rate, scale effect and other factors.
Semiconductor test probes have large market space and urgent demand for import substitution.
1) according to vlsireearch data, the global market scale of semiconductor test probe series products (FT test section) reached US $1.126 billion in 2019. The company’s strategy in the field of semiconductor test probe is to break through from well-known foreign enterprises. It has become a probe supplier for many international well-known chip and semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturers, and has been fully recognized by industry customers. We believe that in the future, large-scale production in Chinese design, sealing and testing and equipment enterprises will also come, and the second growth pole will make a significant contribution. 2) In December 2021, the company plans to raise funds through fixed increase to expand wafer test probe and substrate level probe projects. According to the prediction of VLSI research, the global probe market will reach US $2.741 billion in 2025, and the probe market in China will reach RMB 3.283 billion. MEMS wafer test probes have accounted for about 60% of the probe market. The vast majority of the global wafer probe card market is occupied by formfactor, MJC, technoprobe and other foreign enterprises, with large import substitution space.
MEMS business continues to grow, with fine metal processing capacity and strong expansibility. 1) MEMS Micro microphone Market in TWS headphones and smart phones
Driven by mobile phones and smart homes, the company is expected to continue to grow. The company has established a competitive advantage in the field of acoustic MEMS. At the same time, the company uses its technical advantages to expand into the fields of pressure / optics, and the MEMS business is expected to continue to grow; 2) In the long run, the company’s fine metal processing capacity is highly expandable. According to the projects under research in the company’s annual report, it is expected to expand to the medical field, connectors, new energy vehicles and other fields in the future, with long-term growth space.
Investment advice
We slightly adjusted the profit forecast of 202223, adjusted the revenue of 202223 from 549 and 763 million yuan to 560 and 788 million yuan, and increased the revenue forecast of 2024 by 1.095 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 was adjusted from 181 and 248 million yuan to 162 and 227 million yuan, with a new forecast of 318 million yuan in 2024; In 202223, EPS was adjusted from 2.26 and 3.1 yuan to 2.02 and 2.84 yuan respectively, and the forecast for 2024 was increased by 3.98 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 60.35 yuan / share on March 31, 2022. PE in 202224 was 30, 21 and 15 times respectively, which has not been rated yet.
Risk tips
The progress of the fixed increase project is less than expected; The research and development progress of new products in probe or other industries is less than expected; Risks of excessive fluctuation in downstream industries, etc.
