\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Event overview:
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) release the annual report: in 2021, the operating revenue was 318762 billion yuan (+ 11.38%, YoY), the operating profit was 81.405 billion yuan (+ 20.14%, YoY), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 76.170 billion yuan (+ 18.65%, YoY); At the end of 2021, the total assets were 12.59 trillion yuan (+ 10.87%, yoy; + 3.00%, QoQ), deposits were 1.135 billion yuan (+ 9.62%, yoy; + 3.04%, QoQ), loans were 645 million yuan (+ 12.91%, yoy; + 1.30%, QoQ), and retail aum12 53 trillion yuan (+ 11.40%, YoY). Net interest margin 2.36% (-6bp, YoY); The non-performing loan ratio is 0.82% (+ 0bp, QoQ), the provision coverage ratio is 418.61% (-4.09pct, QoQ), and the allocation loan ratio is 3.43% (-0.00pct, QoQ); Capital adequacy ratio 14.78% (-0.70pct, QoQ); Annual roe11 86%(+0.02pct，YoY)。 The proposed cash dividend is 0.2474 yuan / share, and the disclosed dividend rate is 30%.
Analysis and judgment:
The establishment of the wealth system has helped the rapid growth of medium income, less provision of impairment and accelerated the release of profits
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 2021 revenue + 11.4% year-on-year, increased by 1.2pct compared with the first three quarters, the only double growth rate of revenue among the six major banks; The provision for impairment has been made less year-on-year for three consecutive years, accelerating the release of performance. The annual net profit attributable to the parent increased by 18.6%, down from 22.1% in the first three quarters, but still far higher than the average level of major banks. Among them, in Q4, when the revenue growth rate remained 15%, the profit growth slowed to 2.7%, mainly affected by rising costs and tax payment. On the one hand, according to the company’s disclosure, the expiration of the social insurance premium reduction policy during the epidemic period affected the increase of expenditure. On the other hand, under the implementation of the talent enforcement strategy + increasing the construction of professional talent team, the employee cost and technology marketing expenditure increased significantly year-on-year. However, at the same time, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 2021, the comprehensive agency rate was 1.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 2bp, and the overall agency fee growth rate of 8.3% was lower than the revenue growth rate.
In terms of revenue structure, the core net interest income grew by 6.3% in the whole year and fell to 2.3% in Q4; Non interest income + 50.4% year-on-year was the main driving factor of revenue, of which the net income of handling charges was + 33.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than + 12.7% in the first three quarters. In addition to the low growth rate of 3.8% in the bank card business, the medium income of financial management, custody and investment banking businesses increased by + 23% / + 31% / + 44% respectively. The agency business benefited from the promotion of wealth strategy, contributing to the medium income growth rate of 88.7% and nearly doubling.
By 2021, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) individual customers had 637 million, an increase of 2.4% over the beginning of the year, of which more than 500000 wealth customers contributed 24.1% of the rapid growth. The corresponding AUM of the huge retail customer base exceeded 12.5 trillion yuan, with an annual increase of 11.4%. The wealth management system has been gradually established, including the hierarchical operation of customers, mining needs, adding 2436 financial managers, expanding the team, publishing the “postal bank wealth” brand and providing a diversified wealth product system. At present, the personal financial balance of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) stock is 860.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.4%, and the sales of non commodity base is 168.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31%.
The use efficiency of additional retail loan assets was improved, and the interest margin basically stabilized during the year
In 2021, the Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) net interest margin was 2.36%, and 21q1 / 21h1 / 21q1-3 were 2.4% / 2.37% / 2.37% respectively. Considering that the loan yield decreased by 7bp year-on-year and the yield of interest bearing assets decreased by 2bp year-on-year, the net interest margin basically stabilized in the second half of the year, which is expected to be mainly due to the optimization of asset negative structure.
In terms of scale, the year-on-year growth rate of total assets in the whole year was 10.9%, and the QoQ growth rate increased slightly. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of loans basically remained at the level of 13%, driving the proportion of total loans on the asset side and the loan deposit ratio to increase by 1PCT and 1.7pct to 51.3% and 56.8% respectively year-on-year, and further strengthening the efficiency of capital use. In terms of loan investment, the scale of bills decreased slightly throughout the year. At the same time, public and retail loans increased by 14% and 15.4% respectively year-on-year, driving the proportion of retail loans to increase by 1.3pct to 58.2% year-on-year, especially 76% of the loan increment in the second half of the year. In retail, in addition to the expansion of mortgage at 12.9%, microfinance and credit card loans increased by 22.7% and 20.9% respectively. Subsequently, as China Post Huiwanjia bank was approved to open, the Pratt & Whitney + online service model will help further enhance the online customer acquisition and operation capacity of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) retail business and support the launch of assets.
On the liability side, the total amount of deposits in 2021 was + 9.6% year-on-year, of which the proportion of holding reserves to the ring increased steadily by 3% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) increased the allocation of active liabilities during the year. Under the low base, the scale of inter-bank liabilities and bond issuance increased significantly year-on-year, and the corresponding proportion of deposits decreased slightly, but still accounted for 96.3% of the total liabilities, which has an absolute advantage. In terms of deposit structure, individual fixed deposit + 13.5% year-on-year was the main driving factor of deposits. The overall fixed deposit accounted for 65.6% at the end of the year, up 2pct from the beginning of the year. However, the growth rate of individual live deposit picked up in the second half of the year, driving the growth rate of overall current deposit higher than that of fixed deposit, and the live deposit rate also increased slightly compared with the medium term. Superimposed on the decline of the cost rate of corporate deposit, the overall deposit cost rate increased only 4bp compared with 2020, and the cost rate of contribution debt increased only 4bp as a whole.
The asset quality has always been excellent, and the appropriation coverage rate exceeds 400%, so as to ensure the safety margin
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) asset quality has always been excellent, and the non-performing rate remained unchanged at 0.82% quarter on quarter. It is estimated that the non-performing rate of the whole year decreased by 13bp year-on-year to an absolute low of 0.26%. The ratio of non-performing loans to public loans rose to 370.0% at the beginning of last year, but the ratio of non-performing loans to retail loans was not higher than that of last year, accounting for 371.0% at the beginning of last year; Among corporate loans, the non-performing loans in the real estate industry are only 22 million, and the non-performing rate is only 0.02%. In terms of forward-looking indicators, the proportion of concerned loans increased slightly by 2bp to 0.47% month on month (Q3), the overdue rate remained unchanged at 0.89% month on month, and the overall non-performing loans on the balance sheet were fully cleared; Overdue 90 + / NPL rose 11pct to 74.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in overdue within 90 days.
Under the continuous low provision for impairment, the year-end coverage rate decreased 4pct to 419% month on month, still with a high margin of safety.
Investment suggestions:
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) year-round performance growth continued to take the lead among major banks. On the one hand, retail loans increased rapidly, improved asset allocation efficiency, basically stabilized the interest margin during the year, and ensured the stability of interest collection business. On the other hand, with the promotion of wealth strategy, the medium income performance was beautiful. Although the cost and expenditure increased at the end of the year, the extremely low stock of non-performing assets and new generation level of non-performing assets, superimposed with high provisions, ensured that the provision for impairment continued to feed the release of profits.
We are optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) extensive customer base and retail business gene, giving its performance high growth and imagination. In view of the performance of the annual report, we slightly adjusted the forecast of the company’s revenue of 3396 / 3732 / – billion yuan in 22-24 years to 3453 / 3742 / 413.5 billion yuan, and the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 / 958 / – billion yuan in 22-24 years to 874 / 978 / 109.6 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of 14.76% / 11.93% / 12.01%; 22-24 years eps0 The forecast of 90 / 1.01 / – yuan is 0.92/1.03/1.16 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 5.39 yuan / share on March 31, 2022. Pb is 0.72/0.66/0.60 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips
1. The risk that the future repair of the overall economy is less than expected and the credit cost increases significantly;
2. Major business risks of the company.
