The adjustment of overseas natural gas supply chain has raised the focus of long-term cost of electrolytic aluminum
Event: on March 25, 2022, the European Union and the United States reached a large natural gas agreement. The European Union will purchase at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States before the end of this year to replace the energy imported from Russia.
Comments: sanctions against Russia will affect the pattern of overseas energy supply for a long time. Superimposed on the reshaping of Australia’s alumina trade pattern, overseas costs will raise the price focus of electrolytic aluminum for a long time, and China’s exports of aluminum processed products may continue to benefit.
(1) the improvement of natural gas supply in the United States or high energy prices in Europe is limited: according to SMM, the European Union will purchase at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States before the end of this year to replace the energy imported from Russia, which means that the natural gas export from the United States to Europe will increase by two-thirds. The European and American joint statement also mentioned to help Europe get rid of its energy dependence on Russia by 2027 and ensure that Europe can get 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas every year by 2030. Since Russia supplies about 40% of the EU’s natural gas, the EU’s decision means that the United States will make large profits from it. Earlier this month, the benchmark natural gas price in Europe hit a record high of 227 euros per megawatt hour, about $250, which is 14 times the local price in the United States. According to SMM, the surge in European demand for natural gas in the United States may help fund the construction of new LNG facilities, but it will take at least one to two years after approval. At the same time, the amount of LNG sought by the EU is almost equal to the annual delivery volume of South Korea, the third largest buyer in the market, which is bound to trigger Eurasian competition for spot LNG. It is expected that overseas energy prices will remain high for a long time. According to the latest US natural gas export price, the electricity cost of electrolytic aluminum in Europe is about 1030592 yuan / ton (excluding taxes).
(2) the upward trend of Australian alumina may strongly support the price of electrolytic aluminum in China: Recently, the price of Australian alumina rose. On March 25, the average FOB price of Australian alumina reached US $525 / ton, with a month on month increase of 20.69%. Calculated according to the latest alumina price, the alumina cost of a single ton of electrolytic aluminum was 635427 yuan, an increase of 113559 yuan over the previous month.
In 2022, the 100 people’s meeting will be successfully held, and electric vehicles are expected to enter a new stage of market-oriented development
Event: recently (March 25-27), the forum of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Association (2022) opened in Beijing. The forum invited 100 top experts and scholars who pay attention to and study issues related to the global new energy vehicle industry and leaders of many leading new energy vehicle enterprises to participate in the forum, jointly discuss issues related to the development of new energy vehicle industry from the macro perspective of the global wave of change, and conduct in-depth discussions on hot topics in subdivided fields. Among them, the progress and Discussion on 4680 battery technology has attracted the attention of the industry.
At the forum, Nan Jianxiong, President of Panasonic electric, said that 4680 battery will become the mainstream of cylindrical battery in the future. 4680 battery is a “double innovation” in battery structure and material: it adopts large cylindrical structural parts, and its capacity is five times higher than 2170 battery.
Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) Chairman Liu Jincheng expressed his optimism about this battery technology route, which said that the large cylindrical battery has become the king of the industry and has begun to dawn. Large cylindrical battery will become the main power battery form of medium and high-end new energy vehicles. Compared with square battery and soft pack battery, the safety and economy of large cylindrical battery are more prominent, and has become the focus of industry research.
Fan Wenguang, vice president of Shenzhen BIC power battery, said at the China electric vehicle hundred people’s meeting that the large cylinder battery is the best solution for medium and high-end electric vehicles in the next 5-10 years. It is expected that the market share of large cylinder battery cells will exceed 30%, that is, about 480gwh, which has exceeded the total global demand in 2021.
Risk tips: demand is less than expected, geopolitical risks, large macroeconomic fluctuations, etc
