According to OFweek, after Infineon issued a price increase letter in February, St sent a price adjustment notice letter on March 24 to announce the price increase of Q2 products, including existing orders. Italian French semiconductor products mainly include power devices, analog + MEMS sensors and MCU, with revenue accounting for 32.1%, 38.1% and 29.7% respectively in 2020.
The prosperity of power semiconductors is not worried, and there is no fear of short-term correction of the sector. Recently, the share price of power semiconductor sector has been corrected. The market is worried about the decline of the price of original MOSFET. In fact, the price of consumer MOSFET is still strong, and the supply of medium and high voltage shielding gate, super junction MOS and IGBT is still in short supply. In terms of market space, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of the year was conservatively estimated at 5 million, with an average of 1.3 modules per vehicle and a minimum of 6.5 million vehicle IGBT modules. According to our statistics, there is still a large gap in the output of SAIC Infineon, Ansenmei and Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) and other modules in China. In addition, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 230gw in 22 years. If the market share of inverter in China can reach 70-80%, the demand for photovoltaic IGBT in China can reach 5 billion yuan. Even if Infineon can supply 50%, there is still a large gap in China.
Analog IC also has a high view and is optimistic about domestic alternative acceleration. Previously, the demand for mobile phones and other consumer products was weak, and the market was once worried about the demand for Analog IC, but in fact, mobile phone simulation is still out of stock, and the demand is still stable. Moreover, mobile phone analog IC has sufficient replacement space. At present, the value of a mobile phone analog chip less than 2000 yuan is about US $2; The flagship aircraft will soar to $10, with an average market space of at least $7 billion +. We estimate that domestic companies accounted for less than 10% of the mobile phone analog IC market in 21 years. At the same time, at present, China's analog IC is accelerating its layout in industries, automobiles and other markets. We are optimistic about the long-term growth of the "golden track" of Analog IC.
MCU channel prices rebounded and continued to emphasize the opportunities of the automotive industrial control market. After the Spring Festival, the channel price of MCU stabilized. Since March, the price of some mainstream medium and high-end models began to rebound, and the price of some models such as ST has approached or even exceeded the previous high. Specifically, the high-end m3 and M4 nuclear MCU have increased greatly, corresponding to the demand of downstream automobile, industrial control and other market segments, but the consumer grade MCU is slightly depressed. Under the situation that the shortage of large international manufacturers gives priority to ensuring the needs of overseas customers, we are optimistic about the breaking opportunity of domestic MCU companies.
Investment suggestion: STMicroelectronics issued a price increase letter again, indicating that the prosperity of power, simulation, MCU and other sectors is still high. At present, the sector is ushering in the resonance between downstream prosperity and domestic substitution. For the power sector, it is recommended to pay attention to Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Dongwei semiconductor, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) ; Simulation sector, it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.Ltd(688798) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , 3Peak Incorporated(688536) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) , Wuxi Etek Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688601) , etc; MCU sector, it is recommended to pay attention to Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , etc.
Risk tip: industry prosperity fluctuation risk; The risk that the ramp up of production capacity is less than expected; Risk that R & D and product progress are less than expected
