Photovoltaic industry chain price tracking
Silicon material: single crystal compact material is 246248 yuan / kg [+ 1%] (changed year-on-year and last month, the same below). At present, the downstream procurement demand is strong, the silicon material in the Chinese market is still in short supply, and the short-term silicon material price is expected to continue to strengthen steadily.
Silicon wafer: the quotation of single crystal M6 silicon wafer is 5.45-5.55 yuan / piece [+ 2%], M10 silicon wafer is 6.65-6.66 yuan / piece [+ 4%], G12 silicon wafer is 8.85-8.88 yuan / piece [+ 4%]. Although silicon wafer manufacturers have raised prices for many times, thanks to the improvement of the overall operation level of downstream battery manufacturers, the demand for silicon wafer procurement and preparation has not decreased but increased. At present, although China’s mainstream silicon wafer manufacturers are in full production, the supply of single crystal large-size silicon wafers is still tight.
Cell: single crystal M6 cell 1.09-1.10 yuan / w [+ 0%], M10 cell 1.14-1.15 yuan / w [+ 2%], G12 cell 1.15-1.16 yuan / w [+ 3%]. This week, the transaction price of single crystal battery in the Chinese market continued to rise slightly. At present, the overall order shipment of battery terminal is good. However, due to the continuous rise of battery price, the demand for direct orders in the later stage of superposition is not clear, and the purchase orders of downstream manufacturers for batteries show signs of slowing down.
Components: the price of 182 components is about 1.86-1.93 yuan / w [- 1%], and the price of 210 components is about 1.88-1.93 yuan / w [+ 0%]. China’s component market is relatively stable. Although the upstream costs of components have increased since this year, the actual transaction price of components has not increased significantly due to terminal acceptance. At present, the output rate of mainstream component manufacturers in China remains at a high level, but the order demand in late March or April is still uncertain. Estimated profit distribution of the whole industry chain
M6 single glass: silicon material cost 0.14 + silicon material gross profit 0.47 + silicon wafer non silicon cost 0.11 + silicon wafer gross profit 0.07 + battery wafer non silicon cost 0.18 + battery wafer gross profit 0.02 + component non silicon cost 0.68 + component gross profit -0.03 + VAT 0.21 = 1.85 (yuan / W);
M10 single glass: silicon material cost 0.14 + silicon material gross profit 0.47 + silicon wafer non silicon cost 0.11 + silicon wafer gross profit 0.07 + battery wafer non silicon cost 0.17 + battery wafer gross profit 0.08 + component non silicon cost 0.62 + component gross profit 0.01 + VAT 0.22 = 1.89 (yuan / W).
Price bidding, bid winning capacity and price tracking of wind power industry chain (incomplete statistics)
Bidding capacity: since the beginning of 2022, the total bidding capacity of wind turbine is about 15.75gw (land wind 14.25gw + sea wind 1.50gw), with a year-on-year increase of more than 10%. In March, the bidding volume of wind turbines was 5.40gw (land wind 4.80gw + sea wind 0.60gw), including 1202mw contributed by Datang Group, 852mw contributed by China Resources Power, 800MW contributed by China Power Group, 600MW contributed by Huaneng Group and 1945mw contributed by other enterprises.
Bid winning capacity: since the beginning of 2022, the fixed amount of wind turbine is 5.52gw. The top three manufacturers of bid winning capacity, vision energy, Sany Heavy energy and Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) won 1632mw, 1062mw and 680mw respectively, accounting for 61% of the total bid winning capacity.
Average bid winning price of wind turbine: since the beginning of 2021, the average price of open bidding of wind turbine has generally decreased. Since the parity of onshore wind power, the cost reduction and efficiency increase brought by the large-scale wind turbine have been significant. In March 2022, the average bid winning price of onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) was 2051 yuan / kW, down 10.6% month on month; The average bid winning price of offshore wind turbines was 4638 yuan / kW, up from January.
Data tracking of generation side and sales side
From January to February 2022, 5.94gw of wind power (5.69gw of land wind + 0.25gw of sea wind) and 8.68gw of photovoltaic power will be added across the country. By the end of February 2022, the national installed power generation capacity was 239397gw, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was 334.42gw (307.78gw land wind + 26.64gw sea wind), an increase of 17.5% year-on-year Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation installed capacity 315.81gw (photovoltaic 315.24gw + photothermal 0.57gw), an increase of 22.7% year-on-year. From January to February 2022, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in China was 597 hours, a decrease of 8 hours over the same period of last year. Among them, 323 hours of wind power, 96 hours lower than the same period last year; 182 hours of photovoltaic, 10 hours lower than the same period last year.
Risk tips
Risk of policy change; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The consumption of new energy is less than expected.
