Lithium carbonate from January to February, the import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 29.9% year-on-year, and 88% of the import came from Chile
According to customs data, from January to February, China’s total import volume of lithium carbonate was 1644607 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.90%. Among them, the import volume in January was 1047013 tons, a year-on-year increase of 90.53% and a month on month increase of 44.86%. In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 597594 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.59% and a month on month decrease of 42.92%. Historically, due to the downturn of the market or the sea transportation disturbed by the epidemic, there is basically no way to completely smooth the import volume between months since 2018. From the perspective of the epidemic situation in 2020 to now, July 2020, July 2021, September 2021 and November 2021 are all months with low import volume. In the two months since the beginning of 2022, January is the month with large import volume in history, and February is the month with normal import volume. From January to February, 98.89% of China’s lithium carbonate imports came from Chile and Argentina, of which Chile was the largest importer, importing 1445220 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, accounting for 87.88%.
From January to February, the export volume of lithium hydroxide increased by 4.91% year-on-year, and almost 100% was shipped to Japan and South Korea
From January to February, China’s lithium hydroxide export volume was 1176209 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.91%. Among them, the export volume of lithium hydroxide in January was 721411 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 13.94% and a month on month decrease of 5.25%; In February, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 454798 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% and a month on month decrease of 36.96%. Lithium hydroxide exports fell month on month in January and February, reflecting the decline in output of China’s lithium hydroxide processing plants from January to February due to shortage of raw materials, shutdown for maintenance and Spring Festival holidays. The average export price of lithium hydroxide in January and February was 101700 yuan / ton and 138000 yuan / ton respectively, with a month on month increase of 1.88% and 36.63% respectively. From January to February, lithium hydroxide exported by China was mainly supplied to Asia, mainly East Asian countries, with a total of 1166409 tons, accounting for 99.17%. Among them, the exports of South Korea and Japan were 703483 and 445656 tons respectively, accounting for 59.81% and 37.89% of the total exports respectively. In January, China exported 721411 tons of lithium hydroxide, while Asian countries exported 719011 tons, accounting for 99.67%, an increase of 0.04 PCT month on month; In February, China exported 454798 tons of lithium hydroxide, and Asian countries exported 447409 tons, accounting for 98.37%, a decrease of 1.29 PCT month on month. Japan and South Korea, which accounted for the largest proportion in February, exported 2310.5 tons and 215338 tons respectively, accounting for 51.64% and 48.13% of the total exports respectively.
The sea ports of lithium concentrate from Australian mines are different, and the port of Hedland has resumed normal shipments to China since February
Since mtwodgina and mtngungaju stopped production, Hedland port has become the exclusive lithium concentrate outlet of mtpilgangoora. According to the official data of Hedland port in Australia, the port exported 365800 tons of lithium concentrate in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47%. Considering that Altura mine, which was shut down in 2020, still contributed 170000 tons of sales, the export volume of Hedland port lithium concentrate was almost stabilized in 2021 when only mtpilgangoora was produced and operated. From January to February 2022, 43685 tons of lithium concentrate were shipped from Hedland port, with a year-on-year increase of 21.86%. Among them, the shipment volume of lithium concentrate in January was 20626 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.66% and a month-on-month decrease of 67.06% compared with December 2021. All the concentrates were sent to South Korea, and there was no lithium concentrate shipped to China. In February, 23059 tons of lithium concentrate were shipped, with a year-on-year increase of 113.51% and a month on month increase of 11.80%. All concentrates were shipped to China. Greenbushes mine exports lithium concentrate from Banbury port, but it is unable to track the monthly situation due to the habit of port disclosure. Mtmarion, mtcatlin and mtball all export lithium concentrate from Esperance port. Similarly, due to the port’s disclosure habit, it is impossible to track the monthly situation.
Investment advice
As early as the beginning of 2021, pilbaraminerals, which sold lithium concentrate overseas, and Galaxy resources, which had not been merged at that time, publicly stated that the upstream resource side was the strongest in this round of shortage, and advocated that the downstream processing of upstream resources should be a profit sharing model of 73%. In 2021, due to the price rise of lithium carbonate in China one quarter earlier than that of overseas lithium concentrate and the inventory effect of lithium concentrate, the single ton profit of processing plants and integrated enterprises did not show very differentiation. However, in 2022, especially q2-3 in 2022, it is difficult for China to have lithium concentrate inventory to dilute the cost of externally extracted lithium concentrate, and when we see the high fluctuation of lithium salt price in these two quarters, the profit differentiation between lithium salt processing plants and integrated enterprises per ton will become more and more obvious. It is suggested that we pay attention to upstream and downstream integrated enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to the mining and beneficiation project of Lijiagou spodumene mine under construction. In the future, [ Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) ], which will work with Dagu Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop lithium resources in Ganzi and ABA, will benefit from [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ], which has been increasing production in the next five years and can achieve large-scale output through OEM, and [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ], which is promoting the 2.5 million T / a lithium ore beneficiation project in yuanyangba, with rich reserves of lithium mica resources, [ Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ] is being processed for exploration and mining of Xikeng lithium mica mine.
Risk tips
1) the development progress of lithium concentrate is less than expected;
2) the supply and demand of lithium salt have improved significantly, and the price of lithium salt has dropped rapidly
3) rapid expansion of lithium concentrate supply capacity in Australia.
