Market Review
In March 2022 (until the closing on March 28, 2022), CSI 300 rose or fell by - 9.45%, the automobile industry rose or fell by - 11.20%, and CITIC first-class 29 industry ranked 24th. In the subdivided industries, automobile sales and service (+ 1.18%) ranked first, and automobile parts (- 13.14%) ranked last.
Industry Review
Automobile: in February, automobile production and sales recovered significantly, with a large increase in output. The monthly production and sales volume were 1.8131 million and 1.7373 million respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 25.15% and - 31.35% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 20.67% and + 19.42% respectively.
Passenger cars: the production and sales volume of passenger cars were 1.5343 million and 1.4874 million respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 26.13 and - 31.97% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 32.01% and + 28.68% respectively. The chip supply has improved. The production and sales volume of passenger cars has increased year-on-year and has warmed up for many consecutive months. Specifically: 1) the monthly sales volume of cars and SUVs increased significantly year-on-year, and the monthly sales volume of crossover passenger cars decreased year-on-year, including A00, a and B cars; B. The monthly sales volume of C-class MPV, B-class SUV and C-class SUV increased significantly year-on-year, among which the monthly sales volume of A00 car, C-class SUV and B-class MPV increased rapidly; 2) Japanese and American brands increased more year-on-year, Korean brands decreased year-on-year, and Japanese, German and legal brands recovered rapidly; 3) The monthly sales volume of luxury car retail continued to decline year-on-year, and the year-on-year performance was weaker than the overall performance of passenger car market in the same period.
Commercial vehicles: in February, the monthly production and sales of commercial vehicles were 278800 and 249900 respectively, with a month on month increase of - 19.21% and - 27.42% respectively, a year-on-year increase of - 18.07% and - 16.41% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of + 9.74pct and + 8.49pct respectively compared with the previous month. The decline in production and sales tends to narrow and pick up on the whole.
New energy vehicles: in February, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 368000 and 333700 respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 18.62% and - 22.65% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 197.94% and + 204.40% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high-speed growth year-on-year.
Listed companies: the supply of the industry has warmed up, and the overall production and sales volume began to rise, but the differentiation is large. Among listed companies, SAIC, GAC and Dongfeng increased significantly year-on-year, while Futian, great wall and Chang'an decreased significantly year-on-year. It is expected that after the epidemic situation improves, the overall vehicle sales will be further improved, and the sales of new energy vehicles will continue to increase significantly.
Investment advice
In the short term: since March, the covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places, the number of locally confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections has increased, isolation measures have been taken in some key areas, automobile production and terminal sales have been greatly affected, short-term sales may decline, and the backlog consumption is expected to be released in the middle of the year. Currently, the market valuation is relatively low, and it is suggested to focus on new energy vehicles, core components with strong profitability, core parts, battery recycling businesses, and battery recycling businesses, such as: Byd Company Limited(002594) \ .
Risk tip: China's economic growth is lower than expected; Car sales are less than expected; Covid-19 pneumonia continues to spread
