From January to February, China’s crude oil demand continued the downward trend in 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. From January to February, China processed 113 million tons of crude oil, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%; Crude oil output was 33.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.34%; The import of crude oil was 85.14 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95%; The apparent consumption of crude oil was 118 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%; The external dependence is 71.74%, which is lower than that in 2021, but continues to remain high.
From January to February, China’s natural gas demand continued to grow, but the growth rate fell, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6%. From January to February, China’s apparent natural gas consumption was 63.9 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; The output was 37.2 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; The imported natural gas was 27.6 billion m3, down 4.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the sufficient preparation of pipeline gas and imported LNG during the winter supply guarantee period in 2021, but the cold wave weather was less than expected, the inventory pressure at the terminal was high, the enterprise reduced the LNG import from January to February, and the excess cargo was resold internationally; The degree of external dependence was 41.7%, which remained high.
From January to February, China’s demand for refined oil continued to increase, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. From January to February, China’s output of refined oil was 61.53 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%; The export of refined oil was 3.54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 55.0%. The sharp tightening of export quotas or the main reason for the decrease of export; The apparent consumption of refined oil was 58.36 million tons, an increase of 21.5% year-on-year. Among them, the apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene and diesel changed by 18.5%, – 26.4% and 38.3% respectively year-on-year.
In March, the oil price fluctuated, and the uncertainty of geopolitical factors caused the oil price to rise and fall sharply. In March, stimulated by the discussion between the United States and European allies on banning the import of Russian oil, the oil price rose sharply, and Brent crude oil once hit 140 US dollars / barrel; Subsequently, affected by the negative factors such as the EU did not announce a ban on the import of Russian oil, the United States tried to seek more sources of crude oil import, and the market’s expectation of positive progress in the Russia Ukraine negotiations, the oil price fell sharply, and Brent crude oil fell below US $100 / barrel on March 15. Affected by factors such as Russia’s sanctioned shortage of crude oil supply and expected warming, oil prices resumed their upward trend. On March 28, stimulated by the spread of the epidemic, investors’ concerns about oil demand and the news of a new round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices fell sharply again.
Since the beginning of the year, the yield of petrochemical industry has been – 15.1%, which is better than the whole market, ranking 54th among 109 secondary sub industries. As of March 29, the overall valuation of petrochemical sector (PE (TTM)) was 9.11x. High oil prices have disturbed the profits of the industry. We suggest paying attention to the growing enterprises with increased performance due to business layout and scale expansion, with emphasis on satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ).
Risk tip: the risk of sharp rise in oil price, the risk of decline in industry prosperity, the risk of lower revenue than expected, etc.
