Core view:
Covid-19 epidemic has the characteristics of repetition and uncertainty, and there is a need for catalytic treatment. At the beginning of 2020, covid-19 epidemic broke out and spread to the whole country since late January, and quickly swept the world in the following months. From the global epidemic situation, alpha is the main disseminator of the initial variant strain, followed by beta and gamma variant strains. Due to the higher infection and transmission ability of delta, it broke out rapidly in India and is the main epidemic strain in the world for a long time. On November 27, 2021, the World Health Organization issued a statement saying that the new covid-19 virus b.1.1.529 strain found in South Africa is a noteworthy variant and named Omicron (Omicron). Then Omicron began to spread all over the world. At present, Omicron accounts for nearly 100% of the newly infected patients in the world. Due to the characteristics of high infectivity and mild diseases, as well as the dynamic changes of protection policies in various countries, the number of newly confirmed cases in overseas and China appears repeatedly every day. Considering the characteristics of Omicron variant strain and the trend of covid-19 pneumonia in the world, it can be determined that covid-19 pneumonia is still characterized by repetition and great uncertainty. The outbreak of the epidemic has brought unprecedented tests to global economic activities. Covid-19 industrial chain is an important part of the total medical demand. From covid-19 protection and detection in the early stage of the epidemic, the focus of the industrial chain has shifted to covid-19 prevention and treatment. The uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic has catalyzed the strong market demand and high prosperity of covid-19 industrial chain. From the perspective of prevention and control, covid-19 vaccination constructs the first line of defense for epidemic prevention and control, and neutralizing antibodies provide an effective supplement in the treatment of severe cases. The successful listing of small molecule covid-19 therapeutic drugs of Pfizer and MSD, together with other ways, constitutes a complete closed loop of covid-19 industrial chain.
Covid-19 therapeutic drug R & D innovation, a hundred flowers bloom, and three paths of chemical drugs, biological drugs and traditional Chinese medicine constitute the core track. Since the development of the epidemic, human beings have gone through a difficult road to fight covid-19 for two years, developed a series of response methods, and built a multi-level epidemic prevention and anti epidemic system combining prevention, detection and treatment. Among them, the treatment represented by various drugs is a key link in the multi-level anti epidemic system, and plays a vital role in reducing the severe rate and mortality of infected people. According to the underlying logic of treatment, the treatment of covid-19 pneumonia can be divided into traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine. Experience tells us that the unique mechanism of traditional Chinese medicine has played an important role in epidemic prevention, including immune regulation, inflammatory inhibition and anti-virus. Western medicine therapy is mainly based on the process and molecular mechanism of virus invading the body, replicating and producing pathogenic effect in the body, and designing drugs for relevant targets. From the mechanism of action, the current treatment strategies of covid-19 pneumonia can be divided into several categories: preventing the virus from invading cells, preventing the replication of the virus in cells and inhibiting the excessive inflammatory response produced by the body. From the structural characteristics of drugs, they can be divided into two categories: small molecule chemical drugs and macromolecular biological drugs. Biological drugs represented by neutralizing antibodies target the spike protein of the virus. Once the mutation site of the virus is at the key position of the spike protein, it may lead to the failure of neutralizing antibodies; However, the mutation rate of coronavirus protein induced by non coronavirus is low compared with that induced by natural coronavirus protein; In terms of production capacity, the production capacity of neutralizing antibodies is limited, while the production capacity of oral drugs is less limited and the cost is relatively low; In terms of accessibility, the cost of neutralizing antibodies is high, and intravenous injection is required, so the accessibility is low. However, oral drugs can be administered quickly after infection or covid-19 symptoms, and the accessibility is high. Covid-19 therapeutic drug R & D innovation blooms, and the three paths with small molecular chemicals as the core constitute the core track of the therapeutic industry.
Covid-19 treatment industry chain analysis. Combing the oil production of chemical drugs, biological drugs and traditional Chinese medicine, considering the elasticity of terminal demand and application scenarios, small molecule chemical drugs benefit the most, followed by traditional Chinese medicine. At present, we can see three main investment logics in covid-19 small molecule chemical drug industry chain. The first is that generic pharmaceutical enterprises obtain patent authorization from Pfizer, MSD and other innovative pharmaceutical enterprises through MPP to produce generic drugs for low – and middle-income countries. One of the ingredients of the ingredient of the ingredient of the ingredient of the ingredient of the ingredient of the ingredient of the oral drug of the pfpfpfizer’s coved-19 oral drug. The raw material or preparation of the nirmattrelvir. The 5 Chinese enterprises include Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) -19. The 5 Chinese enterprises include Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) \ \, Langhua pharmaceutical and Longze pharmaceutical; Second, cdmo enterprises deeply involved in covid-19 therapeutic drug supply chain have achieved order fulfillment performance of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises, including Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , etc; The third is the suppliers of APIs and intermediates related to the upstream of covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, including enterprises with the ability to provide key intermediates and APIs in the process of drug synthesis to Pfizer, MSD, yanyeyi, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , real biology and other innovative pharmaceutical enterprises at home and abroad. According to the existing synthetic route of covid-19 small molecule drugs and its key components, we combed the situation of relevant enterprises in the industrial chain. At present, companies related to covid-19 oral drug intermediates have expanded their production, forming a situation of competition. Companies that master the core technology of the industrial chain will have stronger competitive advantages, including Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , etc. In addition, you can also pay attention to China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) , which has established a cooperative relationship with Pfizer. The Chinese medicine industry chain can be divided into three parts: planting, manufacturing, and selling from top to bottom. In combination with the treatment plan of New Coronavirus pneumonia and the expert consensus on prevention and treatment of New Coronavirus pneumonia in the Chinese patent medicine, the best investment opportunities in the COVID-19 treatment industry chain are embodied in the manufacturing links of the industrial chain, including Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc., aiming at the treatment mode of COVID-19 pneumonia.
Investment strategy. Covid-19 industrial chain is an important part of the total medical demand. According to the differences of consumption characteristics, the investment opportunities of covid-19 detection and treatment are better than those of protection and vaccine, including manufacturing and channel terminals. At the current time point, covid-19 treatment industry chain is the most certain investment opportunity in the pharmaceutical sector. The strong demand brought by the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, multi pronged treatment strategies and innovative R & D in full bloom have driven the rise of the concept sector of the whole covid-19 treatment industry chain and become the focus of the market.
It is suggested to focus on determining the enterprises that benefit from the industrial chain and have outstanding performance cashing ability, including upstream, midstream and downstream links. Upstream investment opportunities of covid-19 treatment industry chain: benefit from the upstream API suppliers of covid-19 treatment authorized by MMP, such as Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) and Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) . Investment opportunities in the middle reaches of covid-19 treatment industry chain: covid-19 treatment drug manufacturers with outstanding R & D capabilities, including oral drugs, antibodies and traditional Chinese medicine related enterprises, such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , tengshengbo drug-b, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , etc. Covid-19 downstream industrial chain investment opportunities: China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) ; Listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and treatment drug supply chain: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , etc.
Risk warning. Covid-19 epidemic variation risk; Risk of new drug research and development; Risk of drug price reduction; Market promotion is less than expected risk; Overseas expansion is less risky than expected.
