“The Pearl on the crown of modern industry”, the long track has accumulated a lot. Aeroengine is a device that provides flight power for aircraft. It is also the “heart” of aircraft and a key component to ensure aircraft flight performance and safety. The structure and operation principle of aeroengine are highly complex, involving the cross integration of many basic sciences such as material and mechanical manufacturing. The core components of typical turbojet engine include inlet, compressor, combustion chamber, turbine and tail nozzle, with more than 30000 parts; The operating environment requires high temperature, high pressure and high speed. On the whole, it requires light weight, high reliability and long service life. It is very difficult to develop. Therefore, it is known as the “pearl on the crown of modern industry”.
Military air launch update. China has 1571 aircraft in active service, of which 789 are second-generation aircraft, accounting for 50.22%, accounting for the largest proportion. In the same period, the number of second-generation aircraft in the United States was 0. The fourth generation aircraft had the largest number and proportion, followed by the fifth generation aircraft; The number of the US Air Force’s four generation aircraft is only 6200, accounting for 82.81% of the US Air Force’s four generation aircraft; The number of fifth generation aircraft in the United States is 393, while China has only 19. There is still a big gap between the equipment strength of China’s air force and the United States. Under the subsequent upgrading and upgrading of aviation equipment, there is a huge demand for Aeroengines. At present, some fighters have been equipped with domestic ws10 engines, and the number of fighters equipped with domestic engines will increase day by day; Meanwhile, with the delivery and batch assembly of WS15 during the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is expected to provide broad space for domestic engines, and the whole aviation development industry chain will directly benefit.
Civil demand space is broad. According to the statistics of delivery quantity, it is estimated that by 2039, there will be 5937 single channel jetliners, accounting for 68.0% of the total delivery, of which nearly 80% of the single channel jetliner fleet will be 160 seat, 1868 dual channel jetliners, accounting for 21.4% of the total delivery, and the 250 seat jetliner fleet will be the main fleet, accounting for 75.3% of the total delivery of dual channel jetliners; The rest are regional jet airliners, which will deliver nearly 1000 in 20 years, all of which are 90 seat class. The cumulative total value over the past two decades is US $1324.9 billion, about RMB 8.44 trillion (converted by US $1 to RMB 6.37), with an average annual value of 0.42 trillion. Assuming that the value of civil aviation engines accounts for 26%, the 20-year cumulative engine procurement value is 2.19 trillion yuan.
Investment advice. At present, the industry has entered the batch production period of the 14th five year plan. It is optimistic about the enterprises under the aviation development group that have a monopoly position in the industry and take the lead in enjoying the trillion dividend of the industry: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ( Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) . SH), Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) ( Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) . SZ). We are optimistic about the middle and upper reaches forging, superalloy, titanium alloy and other industries that have high barriers in the industry and benefit from the purchase of new machines and the repair and maintenance of later parts. It is suggested to focus on: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) ( Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) . SH), Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) ( Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) . SZ), Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ( Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) . SH), Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) ( Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) . SZ), Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) ( Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) . SH), Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) ( Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) . SH).
Risk warning: the R & D, production and delivery of new model engines are not as expected. Upstream raw material prices rose sharply. Commercial engine demand is lower than market expectations. The international environment has deteriorated sharply.
