Key investment points:
Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was – 13.79% month on month; The output of the five major steels increased by + 1.76% month on month; Inventory month on month + 0.15%; Steel price chain ratio + 1.02%; Raw materials rose and gross profit was under pressure. The epidemic situation affects construction site operation and leads to weak demand. Attention should still be paid to the epidemic situation and stable economic policies; Supply gradually resumed production, but the pace slowed down under the influence of the epidemic. In the short term, with the support of raw materials, the steel price may be strong, and in the long term, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
LME copper current price / Changjiang nonferrous copper current price month on month + 0.53% / – 0.45%; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 2.50% / – 0.39%. Aluminum: Putin asked the Russian Central Bank and government to formulate relevant norms for ruble settlement with European countries, which exacerbated the market’s concerns about overseas supply; China’s supply is constrained by the “ceiling”, the inventory side is at a low level, and the demand side is guaranteed under the pull of stable economy, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles. It is expected that the aluminum price will run at a high level throughout the year.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide was flat month on month / + 0.31%. Supply and demand continue to be tight, and there is a game between the upstream and downstream of lithium carbonate under high prices. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize or slightly callback in the short term; Under the influence of overseas demand and lithium carbonate price, the price difference between lithium hydroxide and electric carbon may continue to narrow and stabilize. In terms of nickel, LME nickel price was + 7.82% month on month. Under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the global nickel market may be in shortage this year, and the nickel price is expected to remain high.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide was – 2.46% / – 2.57% / – 2.49% month on month. Transactions at high prices are still cold, and suppliers rationally reduce prices. In the short term, prices may be weak under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ).
Risk tips
Raw material price fluctuation risk, lower downstream demand than expected risk, covid-19 epidemic spread than expected risk.
