We judge that there is still room for lithium resource prices to rise in 2022. According to the latest data disclosed by Aetna, as of March 14, 2022, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 512000 yuan / ton, an increase of 6 times over the same period last year and 10 times over the beginning of 2020. Under such a high price of lithium carbonate, the profits of the new energy industry chain are gradually transferred upstream to lithium ore and lithium salt production enterprises. According to the statistical data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average profitability of China’s lithium carbonate production enterprises has reached 354400 yuan / ton. From the inventory side, the current inventory of lithium carbonate enterprises is only 4840 tons, which is in a historical position. With the superposition of downstream demand, there is still strong demand. We judge that the price of lithium resources still has room to rise in 2022.
Tight balance between supply and demand of lithium resources: the demand is growing steadily, and the supply is subject to lithium mines. In terms of supply, the global lithium resource supply mainly comes from spodumene mine in Australia, salt lake brine in South America and lepidolite mine and salt lake brine in China. Among them, spodumene mine in Australia is still the main raw material source of lithium salt in the world. The long re production cycle of Australian mine limits the global supply. It is estimated that the total global lithium resource supply will be about 602000 tons of LCE in 2022. In terms of demand, lithium batteries have replaced traditional industries as the main force. In the future, with the popularization of new energy vehicles and the rapid development of energy storage, the demand for lithium will continue to be strong. It is estimated that the total global demand for lithium will be about 641000 tons of LCE in 2022. Combined with the above judgment of supply-demand relationship, we judge that the supply of lithium resources will continue to be in short supply in 2022.
The impact of lithium salt price rise on the lithium battery industry chain is limited, and the downstream has the ability of cost transmission. When the price of lithium-ion battery rises from 700000 yuan / ton to 200000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium-ion battery will rise by less than 500000 yuan. In terms of complete vehicles, when the price of lithium carbonate rises from 500000 yuan / ton to 700000 yuan / ton, the cost of models at all levels rises by different ranges, but the overall increase remains within 10 percentage points. In the short term, the rise of lithium salt price will affect the gross profit margin of downstream manufacturers, but downstream manufacturers can conduct certain cost transmission through price rise. Moreover, in the context of such fierce competition in the lithium battery industry chain, downstream manufacturers may be more willing to bear the pain of the decline of short-term gross profit margin in exchange for the improvement of long-term market share and profitability.
At present, global external factors are conducive to the high price of lithium resources. At present, the localization of lithium resources in Chile, the rise of global oil prices and other external factors have exacerbated the tight supply and demand of global lithium resources, which is conducive to maintaining the high price of lithium resources. Although there is a certain price difference between China’s lithium resource price and the global lithium resource price, we believe that this is a normal manifestation of the shortage of lithium resources in China. Moreover, at present, the price center of lithium resources abroad is also moving upward, which can directly reflect the state of global lithium resources in short supply.
Investment advice: lithium is known as the “green energy metal” that will change the world in the 21st century, also known as “white oil”, and its importance is self-evident. Under the background of vigorously promoting “carbon neutralization and carbon peak” in the world, we believe that the global demand for lithium resources will continue to be high in the future, and enterprises with the integrated production capacity of “lithium ore + lithium salt” are expected to fully benefit from the tide of this era. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Risk tip: the capacity release of global lithium resources exceeded expectations; Deterioration of industry competition pattern; The technological innovation of lithium battery leads to the reduction of lithium unit consumption of lithium battery; The promotion of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries is less than expected; Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risks.
