Event:
Recently, the epidemic situation in China has continued to develop and has not yet been fully controlled. According to the data of the Health Commission, as of 24:00 on March 29, there were 28163 confirmed cases nationwide (including 62 severe cases). In order to keep epidemic prevention and control work well and achieve “early detection, early isolation, early diagnosis and early treatment”, the State Council and the state health insurance bureau have issued the third edition of the guidelines for screening of New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection organizations in the near future, strengthened the New Coronavirus anti original detection price management, and put the COVID-19 virus antigen detection reagent into medical insurance related notice. We suggest paying attention to investment opportunities in covid-19 industrial chain under the background of repeated outbreaks and strict epidemic prevention and control in China.
Key investment points:
Testing: focus on IVD industry chain
The State takes antigen detection as a supplement to nucleic acid detection. At present, covid-19 antigen detection reagent adopts the government guided price, which means that there is limited room for price reduction in the future. The purpose of superimposing government price control is to apply antigen detection on a large scale as soon as possible, and provinces have successively incorporated covid-19 antigen detection into medical insurance. We believe that covid-19 antigen detection will mainly rely on government procurement in the future, The temporary inclusion of medical insurance has promoted the scale of the retail market. Listed companies related to IVD industrial chain benefit, including manufacturers whose antigen detection products have been approved for listing in China, manufacturers whose antigen detection products have been approved for listing abroad (it is expected that China will obtain certificates in the future) and IVD upstream raw material enterprises. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the risk of centralized purchase price reduction and deterioration of competition pattern.
Treatment: focus on covid-19 specific drug industry chain
In the circular on the effective implementation of the current epidemic prevention and control medical security work, we referred to the “adjustment of the COVID-19 treatment medication that is included in the scope of medical insurance payment”. For the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth), the newly added nmatv tablet / Ritonavir Tablets is purchased by the medical institutions according to the price agreed by the enterprise and the relevant departments, and the medical insurance department pays well according to the regulations. The medical insurance access policy will further promote the market scale of covid-19 therapeutic drugs.
At present, two covid-19 specific drugs approved for listing in China are included in the ninth edition of covid-19 pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan. China covid-19 specific drug pipeline mainly includes oral small molecule drugs, monoclonal antibodies, 3CL protease specific drugs, nucleoside drugs, etc. At present, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ‘s vv116, azvudine of real organisms and prochloramide, which develops the pharmaceutical industry, have made the fastest progress in research and development, and all have entered the phase 3 clinical stage. In addition, on March 18, the official website of the drug patent pool announced that Pfizer had signed agreements with 35 companies, which would allow the imitation production of nimatrilvir, one of the paxlovid components of Pfizer covid-19 oral liquid, including Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) (only producing API), Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) (only producing API) and Shanghai deseno. We believe that under the background of repeated epidemics in China and the state attaches importance to covid-19 specific drugs, the covid-19 specific drugs industry chain will benefit. We suggest paying attention to covid-19 specific drugs R & D enterprises, covid-19 specific drugs commercialization enterprises, covid-19 specific drugs upstream enterprises, covid-19 specific drugs R & D outsourcing enterprises and enterprises that have obtained the imitation right of naimatavir, one of the components of Pfizer covid-19 oral drug paxlovid.
Treatment: pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine industry chain related to covid-19 treatment
Traditional Chinese medicine has become an important part of covid-19 pneumonia treatment. The expansion of traditional Chinese medicine treatment from traditional Chinese medicine to traditional Chinese medicine treatment in the ninth edition of diagnosis and treatment plan is the national recognition of traditional Chinese medicine in the field of covid-19 treatment, and most varieties have been included in the national medical insurance. It is suggested to pay attention to listed companies related to traditional Chinese medicine.
Risk factors: the risk of exceeding expectations in the implementation of policies such as cost control and volume procurement, and the risk of drug R & D and listing failure.
