\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 659 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) )
Performance growth exceeded expectations and continued to be optimistic about the growth of lithium battery materials comprehensive platform
In 2021, the revenue was 8.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.36%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 166.16%; The gross profit margin of main business was 35.54%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.06pct. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 518 million yuan in 2021q4, an increase of 13.53% over Q3. In 2021, the company's products were in short supply and the profit margin increased.
In the future, the company will increase the production expansion of various lines and is committed to building an industrial platform for negative electrode and coating diaphragm. We raised the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 2.951 (+ 4.29) / 4.069 (5.18) / 5.442 billion yuan, EPS is 4.25/5.86/7.84 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding p / E ratio of the current stock price is 33.4/24.2/18.1 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Graphitization has a self-sufficiency rate of 70% + the highest in the industry, and the profit per ton has increased steadily
Basic information: in 2021, the negative pole revenue of the company was 5.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.38%, and the gross profit margin was 29.49%, a year-on-year increase of + 4.18 PCT. The improvement of profit margin is mainly based on the strong downstream demand and the shortage of high-quality production capacity. Estimated power in 2022: consumption accounts for 7:32, and the negative electrode capacity is expected to be more than 400000 tons in 24. We expect that the profit per ton is expected to rise steadily: (1) cost pressure transmission: there is a shortage of graphitization (the graphitization price is at the highest level in History), and the price of negative electrode products rises slightly. The company negotiated the price increase with the downstream, and the cost transmission was smooth; (2) The self-sufficiency rate of graphitization of the company is the highest in the industry: 50000 tons of graphitization in Xingfeng phase II of Inner Mongolia has entered the trial production stage. At present, the total capacity of graphitization reaches 130000 tons +. Combined with the company's shipment expectation of about 15 Konka Group Co.Ltd(000016) 0000 tons in 2022, the self-sufficiency rate of graphitization is expected to reach 70% + (generally 50% - 60% in peers). The improvement of graphitization rate is expected to improve the profitability of a single ton.
Short term scale advantage & medium and long-term comprehensive cost advantage, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) consolidate its position as the king
Basic information: the income related to coating film was 2.195 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 171.07%, and the shipment volume reached 2.171 billion m2, accounting for 35.19% (+ 8.51pct). For diaphragm enterprises to expand coating business, we believe that Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) will not shake its advantageous position: (1) in the short term, the company has significant capacity advantages. It is estimated that in 2024, the coating capacity will be 10 billion square meters and the base film will be 1.3 billion square meters, creating a closed-loop coating diaphragm. In the short term, such as Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and others, the proportion of diaphragm integration is relatively low; (2) In the medium and long term, technical advantages and cost advantages will create solid barriers for the company. The company focuses on coating materials and adhesives, and has formed a capacity of 8000 tons of nano alumina, boehmite and 5000 tons of PVDF (the PVDF is expected to reach 25000 tons in 2024). R & D technology iteration ensures the company to consolidate its position as the king.
Risk tip: competition intensifies and downstream demand is less than expected
