\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Core view
21 years ended smoothly, and the performance was consistent with the forecast. The company released its annual report for 21 years, which realized a revenue of 30.167 billion yuan (YoY + 8.7%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.155 billion yuan (YoY + 43.3%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.207 billion yuan (YoY + 21.5%); Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 3.395 billion yuan (YoY + 1.7%), a net profit attributable to the parent of -455 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.4%, a deduction of non attributable net profit of -1.009 billion yuan, and an increase of 17.0%.
In the past 21 years, the volume and price of beer have risen simultaneously, and the structural upgrading trend is obvious. In terms of component price, the sales volume in 21 years was 7.93 million kiloliters (YoY + 1.4%), and the operating revenue of kiloliters was + 7.2% year-on-year; Among them, the sales volume of 21q4 was 848000 kiloliters (yoy-3.7%), the decline rate narrowed by 5.0pct month on month, and the operating revenue of kiloliters increased steadily by + 5.7% year on year. By brand, the 60060 revenue of the main brand in 21 years was 19.8 billion yuan (YoY + 14.8%), the proportion increased by 3.6pct to 67.3%, and the volume and price increased by 11.6% / 2.8% respectively. Among them, the sales volume of high-grade products was 520000 kiloliters (yoy + 14.2%), and the proportion increased by 0.7pct to 6.6%; The revenue of other brands was 9.9 billion yuan (yoy-2.1%), and the volume and price changed by – 8.7% / 7.2% respectively. By region, the revenue of Shandong, South China, North China, East China, Southeast China and overseas increased by 8.3%, 11.4%, 13.6%, 0.8%, 9.2% and 2.3% respectively in 21 years. Among them, the net profit of Shandong, North China and Southeast increased year-on-year, the decline of net profit in South China narrowed to single digits, and East China suffered a small loss. It is expected that the total sales volume of the company will remain basically stable in 22 years, and the price increase and structural upgrading are expected to promote the medium and high single digit growth of revenue.
Under the pressure of cost, the gross profit margin rose and the profitability increased steadily. The gross profit margin in 21 years was 36.71% (YoY + 1.38%). Under the rising pressure of raw materials, the unit cost in 21 years increased by 4.9%. The company effectively hedged through price increase and structural upgrading; The sales expense rate was 13.58% (YoY + 0.71pct), mainly due to the company’s increased brand publicity and the government’s reduction and exemption of social insurance expenses due to covid-19 epidemic in the same period; The ratio of administrative expenses is 5.61% (yoy-0.43pct), and the proportion of taxes and surcharges in revenue is 7.69% (yoy-0.31pct); To sum up, the net interest rate of non parent company deduction in 21 years increased by 0.77pct to 7.31%.
The epidemic situation does not change the upgrading trend and is optimistic about the room for profit improvement. Since March, covid-19 epidemic in China has spread, and the company’s beer sales are expected to be under pressure. We believe that short-term fluctuations do not change the general trend of beer consumption upgrading, and we are optimistic about the future trend of the industry. Affected by overseas wars and conflicts, commodity prices continued to rise, and the cost pressure of the company increased in 22 years. However, driven by price increase and structural upgrading, the gross profit margin is still expected to increase steadily. The proportion of ordinary and low-grade products of the company is still high, with large room for ton price improvement, superimposed cost control, and optimistic about the room for profit improvement.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Cut down the revenue and gross profit margin. It is predicted that the company’s earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 2.44 yuan, 2.94 yuan and 3.52 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 2.58 yuan and 3.10 yuan). Maintain the previous valuation, give 41 times PE in 22 years, target price of 100.04 yuan, and maintain the overweight rating.
Risk warning: the increase of ton price is less than expected, the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the risk of food safety events.
