\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 55 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) )
Core view
High performance growth in 21 years, in line with market expectations. The company released its annual report for 21 years. In the past 21 years, the operating revenue was 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 676 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.0%; Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 95 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.2%.
Baijiu business has achieved high growth and actively promoted channel construction. The 21 year sales volume of Baijiu, wine and imported spirits reached 65.30, 4.71 and 306 million yuan, up 52%, 31.7% and 53.3% respectively. Baijiu and wine sales volume was 706421 and 226992 KL respectively in the 21 years, up 77.27% and 14.09% respectively. Baijiu achieved high growth, and wine and imported spirits showed great potential for growth. In terms of channels, on the basis of building brand stores, retail outlets, Ka stores, group buying, e-commerce, terminal suppliers and other omni-channel networks, the company has increased the construction of Ka channels to meet the trend of consumption upgrading, and its products have entered more than 20 large supermarkets in 21 years; The company actively expanded online channels and launched the o2o platform of Huazhi wine store outside the flagship stores of jd.com, tmall.com and pinduoduo. In terms of warehousing and logistics, the company had 36 warehouses at the end of 21, covering 23 provinces and 3 municipalities directly under the central government, so as to improve the inventory management level and logistics distribution efficiency. Based on big data, the company builds an information system that can realize integrated management of marketing, personnel, warehousing and logistics, so as to further improve operation efficiency.
The proportion of non-standard boutique wine has increased, and the profitability has been continuously optimized. In terms of product procurement, the company has established stable cooperative relations with famous wineries such as Maotai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) to reduce procurement costs. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin of the company was 20.96%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.88pct; Baijiu liquor gross profit margin was 21.48%, an increase of 1.42pct, mainly due to Diaoyutai, lotus and other best-selling non-standard liquor accounted for the proportion. In the past 21 years, the rates of sales, management and financial expenses of the company were 7.72%, 1.76% and 0.18% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.11pct, – 0.32pct and – 0.13pct. The increase of sales expenses was caused by the expansion of business personnel and sales scale. Overall, the net profit margin of sales in 21 years was 9.22%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.53pct.
The sales network was further penetrated, and non-standard liquor boosted profits. Under the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading, the value of specialized Baijiu channel business is further revealed. Over the past 21 years, relying on the “700 project”, the company has continued to increase its penetration into core areas and promote the continuous growth of revenue. Relying on its extensive sales network and scale advantages, the company strengthens the operation and sales of non-standard liquor. Lotus wine is expected to maintain a high growth trend and further improve its profitability
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Raise the revenue and gross profit margin. It is predicted that the company’s earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 2.04, 2.53 and 3.01 yuan respectively (the original 22-23 prediction is 1.58 and 1.92). Combined with the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 27 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 55.08 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk warning: unstable supplier cooperation relationship, improper management of downstream channels, risk of food safety events.
