\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 528 China Railway Hi-Tech Industry Corporation Limited(600528) )
Events
On March 29, the company released its annual report for 2021.
Key investment points
Overall compound expectation of annual report performance in 2021; Year on year revenue + 12%, net profit attributable to parent company + 2%
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 27.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2%, which was in line with expectations as a whole. At the end of 2021, the company’s inventory reached 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16%; Contract liabilities reached 8.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%. In Q4 of 2021, the company realized a revenue of 7.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12% and a month on month increase of + 7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 9% and a month on month increase of – 23%.
The annual growth rate of newly signed orders reached 12%, and the acceleration of “steady growth” infrastructure projects is expected to lead to a rebound in the growth rate of new orders
In 2021, the company completed a total of 46.81 billion yuan of newly signed contracts, a year-on-year increase of + 12%. By product, the newly signed contract value of special construction machinery and equipment business was 15.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5%. Among them, the tunnel construction equipment business completed 12.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 1%; The construction machinery business completed 2.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68%. The newly signed contract amount of transportation equipment business was 29.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%. The turnout business completed 6.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13%; The steel structure business completed RMB 22.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Under the background of “steady growth” policy, it is expected that the approval and construction of new infrastructure projects around the country are expected to be accelerated, and the newly signed contract amount of the company is expected to be accelerated in 2022.
The results of cost reduction and efficiency increase have been reflected, and the profitability has stabilized and rebounded; Increase product payment collection efforts and significantly improve cash flow
In 2021, the company achieved remarkable results in cost reduction and efficiency increase. The gross profit margin of its main business reached 17.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6pct, and the profit can be improved. Affected by the increase of expenses and other factors, the net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 6.8%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.7pct.
In 2021, the company’s four expenses maintained a reasonable growth range, of which the sales expense was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19%; The management fee was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%; The R & D cost was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16%, and the financial cost was – 84 million yuan. In 2021, the company increased its collection efforts, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51%. The cash flow situation was improved compared with the previous year.
The demand for subway construction equipment is growing steadily, and new application fields such as pumped storage bring incremental demand for shield machine / TBM
The downstream works of shield machine are mainly subway works, accounting for 70% – 80%. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the operating mileage of China’s urban rail transit will increase by 3000 kilometers. It is expected that the demand for shield machines will increase by about 10% in the next three years.
It is estimated that the compound growth rate of the installed capacity of pumped storage during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 23%, and the cumulative demand for Pumped Storage TBM in the next 15 years will reach 45 billion yuan. With the continuous growth of TBM in the fields of national defense, water conservancy tunnel (tunnel), special railway and underground water storage, the application prospect of TBM in urban areas is expanding.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 313 / 365 / 428 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15% / 16% / 17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.1 billion / 2.47 billion / 2.92 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / 18% / 18%, corresponding to 8 / 7 / 6 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
1) the growth rate of infrastructure investment such as subway slows down; 2) The iteration of energy storage technology and the development of pumped energy storage are lower than expected
