\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 388 Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) )
Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) released 2022q1 performance forecast. The company expects to achieve revenue of 949 ~ 1099 million yuan in 2022q1, yoy + 78.92% ~ 107.17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 200 ~ 232 million yuan, yoy + 80.71% ~ 109.25%, QoQ + 28.4% ~ 48.7%. It is estimated that the non net profit attributable to the parent company is 165 ~ 191 million yuan, yoy + 55.71% ~ 80.29%, QoQ + 24.8% ~ 44.5%. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.804 billion yuan, yoy + 133.26%, net profit attributable to parent company of 550 million yuan, yoy + 195.02%, net profit not attributable to parent company of 497 million yuan, yoy + 203.54%. In 2021q4, the company achieved revenue of 817 million yuan, yoy + 97.7%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 156 million yuan, yoy + 122.8%, non net profit attributable to the parent company of 132 million yuan, yoy + 95.6%. On the one hand, the continuous and substantial growth of performance comes from the release of the company’s production capacity: the IPO raised investment project “5000 t / a high-performance copper foil technology transformation project for new energy power battery” has reached the expected goal; Shandong xinliyuan, acquired in August 2021, helped the company expand its production capacity through technological transformation; In December 2021, Baidu’s first production line with an annual output of 5000 tons of “15000 tons of high-performance copper foil project” successfully reached production capacity. In addition, the downstream demand for new energy vehicles continued to be strong, and the company’s product structure was further optimized.
The sales volume of high-performance lithium battery copper foil increased significantly, and the profitability increased steadily. In terms of revenue structure, the company’s annual revenue of lithium battery copper foil in 2021 was 2.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.6%, accounting for 89.8% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin increased by 4.3% to 30.2%; The revenue of standard copper foil was 285 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.2%, and the gross profit margin was significantly improved, increasing by 18.4% to 28.2%. Through cost reduction and efficiency increase, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company will reach 30.0% and 19.6% respectively in 2021, and the operation efficiency and profitability will rise steadily. In addition, in 2021, the sales volume of copper foil with a thickness of 6 microns and below reached 18400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 139.1%, and the sales volume of copper foil with a thickness of more than 6 microns was 9384.2 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. While expanding production, the company actively adjusted the product structure, and the sales volume of high-performance products increased significantly.
The production capacity continues to expand, and lithium copper foil and standard copper foil are developed at the same time. According to the reply report of the company’s fixed increase audit inquiry letter, the company has an annual capacity of 26000 tons by the end of 2021. The company plans to achieve an annual capacity of 4.5/8.3/10.1107000 tons from 2022 to 2025. In addition, the company plans to take Jiangxi subsidiary as the implementation subject and invest no more than 1 billion yuan to build Jiangxi Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 15000 tons of electrolytic copper foil project on the basis of the original 20000 ton annual output project in Longnan City, mainly producing high-end electrolytic copper foil Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) as the leader of high-quality lithium battery copper foil in China, the technical strength of high-end products is leading. Previously, it established a joint venture with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to vigorously expand production, highlighting the strong demand of the industry and the close cooperative relationship with downstream major customers, which is expected to fully benefit from the prosperity of the industry and continue the rapid growth. In addition, the company expanded the production of high-performance electronic circuit copper foil for PCB, accelerated the localization process of high-end PCB copper foil, further optimized the company’s copper foil product structure and improved its comprehensive competitiveness. We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 6.03/91.5/13.61 billion and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.10/18.3/2.79 billion respectively from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to pe1.8 billion 5 / 11.1/7.3x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the production expansion progress is less than expected, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
