\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 33 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) )
The double main industries of coal and aluminum are booming, and the performance is expected to benefit from both volume and price. Maintain "buy" rating
The company released its annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 34.45 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 83.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 803%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 3.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3904%. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 935 million yuan, an increase of 11.8% month on month. In 2021, the high prosperity of coal and aluminum dual main industries led to a high increase in the annual performance, and the annual and Q4 single quarter performance was slightly higher than the previous performance forecast. The company's annual provision for large credit / asset impairment (742 / 2845 million yuan) has a certain drag on the performance. Regardless of impairment factors, the company's total gross profit increased by 204% year-on-year, which shows that the performance elasticity of coal and aluminum has been greatly released. Considering that the price center of coal and aluminum has moved upward, Yunnan hydropower aluminum is about to be fully put into operation, and the company's high profit is expected to continue. We maintain the 20222023 forecast and add the 2024 forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 5.51/6.01/6.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.4% / 9.0% / 4.3%; EPS is 2.45/2.67/2.78 yuan, corresponding to 6.0/5.5/5.3 times of the current share price PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
The average volume and price of coal and aluminum rose, and the performance elasticity was greatly released
Electrolytic aluminum business: Yunnan Aluminum has a large volume in succession, with high aluminum prices and controllable costs. In 2021, the production / sales volume of electrolytic aluminum was 1.407/1.418 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37%/ 40.3%, of which Xinjiang remained stable at about 800000 tons, and Yunnan achieved sales of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 390000 tons. The annual price excluding tax per ton of aluminum was 16628 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%. In the same period, the average price of A00 aluminum of Changjiang nonferrous metals increased by 33% year-on-year. The company's electrolytic aluminum adopted the market-based pricing model to fully benefit from the dividend of high aluminum price; The cost per ton of aluminum was 10798 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%, mainly due to the rise of alumina and power costs, and the distribution of raw materials / power cost per ton of aluminum increased by 16.6% / 20.5% year-on-year; The gross profit per ton of aluminum was 5831 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 106%, and the profit elasticity of aluminum prices was significantly released.
Coal business: production and sales increased significantly year-on-year, and the price of spot coal is highly elastic. In 2021, the coal production / sales volume was 6.537/6.545 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% / 13.9%. The price per ton of coal excluding tax was 1177 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 72.5%. The company's coal was sold in stock, and the coal price followed the market. In the same period, the cost per ton of coal was 599 yuan / ton, only a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The profit of the coal sector improved significantly, and the gross profit per ton of coal reached 578 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 364%.
Yunnan Aluminum is about to be fully put into operation, and there is still room for increase in coal output
According to the company's announcement, since February 22, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan Province have resumed power supply in an orderly manner. The 220000 ton production capacity of Yunnan Shenhuo has been started one after another, and the production efficiency has been significantly improved. Meanwhile, the remaining 150000 tons of production capacity that has not yet been put into operation will be powered on and started within March. It is expected that all 900000 tons of production capacity can be fully put into operation by the end of April. Under the expectation of continuous high aluminum price, the annual performance of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase significantly. At the same time, there is still room for increment in the coal sector. The technical transformation and capacity expansion of Liangbei mine (900000 tons to 2.4 million tons) will reach the production capacity in 2023. It is expected that the output will reach 1.8/2.4 million tons in 20222023, which is expected to contribute to the performance of coal increment thickening.
Risk tip: the price of coal and aluminum fell more than expected; Risk of coal mine shutdown and reduction; The resumption of aluminum production in Yunnan is less than expected
