\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 585 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) )
Subject to the decline of industry prosperity, the performance is slightly under pressure. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 167.95 billion, yoy-4.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33.27 billion yuan, yoy-5.38%. Among them, the revenue from product sales (excluding trade) of the core main business was 111.65 billion yuan, yoy + 4.46%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 3.09pct year-on-year. The decline of the company’s performance is related to the decline of industry prosperity. According to the digital cement network, the cement industry produced 2.363 billion tons in 21 years, yoy-1.2%, and the industry profit decreased by 10% year-on-year. In addition, the cost of 21h2 coal rose sharply, superimposing power rationing, resulting in a decline in profitability.
The profit of cement clinker business declined due to the impact of coal price, and the aggregate and commercial mixing business continued to develop vigorously. The price / cost / gross profit per ton of cement clinker self-produced products were 360.6/203.3/157.3 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5/32.4/3.1 yuan respectively. The rise in price and cost per ton was mainly due to the rise in raw coal price. Affected by the industry, the sales volume of self-made products declined slightly in the core region (East / central), with the overall sales volume of 304 million tons in 21 years, yoy-6.53%. In 22 years, the company plans to sell 325 million tons of cement clinker (excluding trade). Aggregate business performance reached a new high in 21 years, with revenue of 1.82 billion, yoy + 77.50%; Gross profit margin 65.69%, yoy-2.64pct. The company will increase aggregate production capacity from 7.5 million tons to 65.8 million tons in 21 years, and will continue to increase aggregate production capacity and utilization rate in the future. It is expected that the aggregate production capacity will increase by 44 million tons in 22 years, with a considerable growth rate. In the field of commercial concrete, the company has also increased its expansion efforts. In 21 years, the company has added 10.2 million cubic meters of production capacity, and plans to continue to add 10.5 million cubic meters in 22 years, expanding the industrial chain upstream and downstream at the same time. In the 21st year, the trading business achieved a revenue of 36.57 billion, yoy-10.95%. In 22 years, infrastructure is expected to hedge the vacancy caused by the decline of real estate, and the probability of coal price rising is small. We believe that the traditional business will continue to maintain resilience.
Actively layout photovoltaic power generation to further enhance the competitiveness of the main industry. In the context of double carbon, the company also led the industry reform. In 21 years, the company completed the equity acquisition of conch new energy, added 19 photovoltaic power stations and 3 energy storage power stations, achieved 200MW photovoltaic installed capacity by the end of 21, and plans to add 800MW photovoltaic installed capacity in 22 years. On the one hand, photovoltaic power generation can reduce fuel and power costs, which account for 55.4% of the cost of cement clinker in 21 years. On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission and other five departments proposed in the “several opinions on strict energy efficiency constraints and promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas” in October 21 that the cement industry will reach the benchmark level by 25, and the proportion of production capacity will exceed 30%. As an industry leader, the company has strong demand for energy consumption transformation and upgrading. The planned capital expenditure of the company in 22 years is 23.5 billion, an increase of 46.69% compared with the actual expenditure in 21 years, which is mainly applied to project construction / environmental protection technical transformation / M & A, and the implementation of the project is expected to be accelerated.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Forecast of eps6.22-24 years 42 / 6.57 / 6.44 yuan (the original forecast value of 22 / 23 is 7.06 / 7.22 yuan). The revision of profit forecast is mainly due to the higher than expected rise of coal cost. The average (adjusted) pe8x from 14 years to now, we recognize the company’s 22-year 8xpe, corresponding to the target price of 51.36 yuan, and maintain the “overweight” rating. Risk tip: the decline of real estate demand exceeded expectations, the cost of raw materials rose sharply, and the overseas business expansion was less than expected.
