\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
The company released the main operating conditions in 21 years and 22q1. In 21 years, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 109.46 billion yuan (YoY + 11.7%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 52.46 billion yuan (YoY + 12.3%); In 21q4, the operating revenue was about 31.3 billion yuan (YoY + 12.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.19 billion yuan (YoY + 18.1%), which accelerated the growth of Q4; The total operating revenue of 22q1 was about 33.1 billion yuan (YoY + 18%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 16.6 billion yuan (YoY + 19%), which made a good start.
22q1 new product contribution increment, Maotai e-commerce platform launched. The revenue growth rate of 22q1 is higher than that of 21q4. It is expected to mainly benefit from the incremental contribution of new products such as Feitian volume, Maotai 1935 and treasure Maotai. The release of new products is expected to provide important support for the annual performance growth. Recently, the price of Feitian Maotai has shown a downward trend. At present, the whole box price is about 2800 yuan and the bulk bottle price is about 2600 yuan, down about 350 yuan and 150 yuan respectively compared with the beginning of the month; The decline in the current round of the wholesale price is expected to be mainly due to the spread of the epidemic to high-end Baijiu consumption scenarios, and the Moutai e-commerce platform is causing concerns on the channel. Marginally, the wholesale price has shown a stabilizing trend. The downstream consumer demand for Maotai liquor is strong. The short-term decline in the wholesale price will stimulate the formation of more demand. The long-term decline space is limited, and it is expected to remain stable in the future. Maotai e-commerce platform “I Maotai” was officially launched recently. At present, the platform can sell products such as the year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac wine, rare Maotai and Maotai 1935. The launch of Maotai e-commerce platform is an important step for the company to promote channel reform, which helps to shorten the distance between Maotai liquor and consumers, reduce consumers’ purchase threshold, and recover some channel profits at the same time.
Strengthen the development of direct selling and non-standard products, and steadily improve the profitability. From the perspective of profitability, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21 years is about 49.5% (YoY + 0.3pct), of which the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is about 48.6% (YoY + 2.1pct); Based on the total operating income, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company of 22q1 is about 50.2% (YoY + 0.4pct). The company’s profitability has been steadily improved, and it is expected to mainly benefit from the increase in the proportion of direct sales channels, the increase in the price and proportion of non-standard products, etc.
22 years of performance accelerated growth, focusing on long-term allocation value. Based on the process characteristics of Maotai liquor, we expect that the sales volume of Maotai liquor will increase by about 9% year-on-year in 22 years. With the development of direct sales channels and non-standard products, 22 years will be a year for the accelerated growth of the company’s performance. Recently, affected by the overall adjustment of the market, the company’s valuation fell. At present, the PE in 22 years is about 33 times, and the medium and long-term allocation value is further highlighted. The Chinese Baijiu consumption trend is unchanged in the long run. As a leading Baijiu, the company’s performance growth is high. The channel reform will further enhance the profitability elasticity.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the performance express, the expense rate is lowered, and the earnings per share of the company in the 21st-23rd year are predicted to be 41.76 yuan, 49.94 yuan and 57.39 yuan respectively (the original forecast for the 21st-23rd year is 41.42 yuan, 49.63 yuan and 57.23 yuan). Maintain the 45 times PE valuation of the previous report in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 224730 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tip: the risk of insufficient production capacity of base liquor, the risk of increasing social inventory and the risk of environmental deterioration.
