\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, achieving a revenue of 30.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 460 million yuan, compared with - 780 million yuan in the same period last year. At the same time, it is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 1.10 yuan per share (including tax).
The proportion of main brands continued to rise, driving the ton price to rise significantly. In terms of volume, the company achieved 7.93 million tons of beer sales in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The company continued to promote the upgrading of product structure, and the optimization of sales structure was obvious: the sales volume of main brands was 4.32 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, of which the sales volume of high-grade beer was 520000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; Other brands achieved sales of 3.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. In terms of price, thanks to the rapid volume of Chunsheng and products above 1903, the ton price of main brands increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 4573 yuan / ton; In addition, the company continued to promote the substitution of canned Laoshan for canned Laoshan in Shandong and North China, and the ton prices of other brands increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 2744 yuan / ton. The proportion of medium and high-end products continued to rise, driving the overall ton price of the company to rise by 7% year-on-year to 3742 yuan / ton. In terms of subregions, Shandong and North China, the advantageous regions along the Yellow River, achieved both volume and price increases, with sales volume + 3.4% / + 6.8% year-on-year and revenue + 6% / + 5% year-on-year respectively; The fees in vulnerable areas along the coast decreased significantly. The sales expenses in South China / East China / Southeast China decreased by 2% / 5% / 1% year-on-year respectively, and the southeast region successfully turned losses into profits. The company's nationwide layout is steady, and the upgrading of product structure is promoted along the Yellow River. With the superposition of reducing fees and increasing profits in the south of the Yangtze River, the company's performance is expected to maintain a high growth in 22 years.
The pressure on the cost side is prominent, reducing fees and improving efficiency and levying compensation to thicken profits. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 36.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4pp, of which the gross profit margin of Q4 in a single quarter was - 18%, with a year-on-year decrease of 47pp. Since 21h2, affected by the continuous rise in the prices of key raw materials such as barley and packaging materials, the overall cost side of the industry has been under pressure. Due to: 1) wine enterprises generally adopt price locking in advance to avoid raw material price fluctuations, the impact of high priced raw materials has been reflected on the statement side since Q3; 2) In the off-season, the demand for beer is weak, the decline in sales weakens the scale effect, and the cost pressure is prominent, resulting in obvious pressure on the gross profit margin of 21q4. In terms of expense rate, the sales expense increased by 0.7pp to 13.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's increased brand publicity and the reduction and exemption of social security expenses due to covid-19 epidemic in the same period; The management expense ratio remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4pp to 5.6%. The company received the compensation for land collection and storage of yangjiaqun freight yard from the government in December 21, and contributed 436 million net profit to the company after deducting taxes and other related expenses. Under the continuous pressure on the cost side, the overall net profit margin of the company increased by 2.4pp to 10.8% through the optimization of product structure and the improvement of cost investment efficiency.
The price increase was implemented to alleviate the cost pressure, and the structural upgrading escorted the long-term performance. Since 2022, the prices of raw materials such as aluminum and barley on the cost side of the industry have continued to rise. The company has started raising prices for white beer, 1903 and other products in the off-season of 21. At present, the channel feedback on the price increase has been conducted smoothly, and the boosting effect on the profit side is expected to be reflected in the peak season of 22 years. In addition, the high growth trend of the company's white beer category continues, and the growth rate is expected to exceed 40% in 22 years; The regional structure along the Yellow River is upgraded steadily, and the proportion of main brands is expected to exceed 25%. With the continuous occupation of consumers' minds by the company's offline immersive marketing activities with Qingdao 1903 bar as the core, the company's competitive advantage of high-end beer will be further expanded, and its long-term performance is expected to be stable and good.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.43 yuan, 2.81 yuan and 3.10 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 32 times, 28 times and 25 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: price fluctuation risk of raw materials, repeated covid-19 epidemic risk and intensified high-end competition risk
