\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 242 Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) )
Event: Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) published the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company realized revenue of 10.54 billion yuan, yoy-6.1%; Achieved a performance of 750 million yuan, yoy-20.7%. After conversion, Q4 achieved revenue of 3.51 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy-15.3%; Achieved performance of 80 million yuan, yoy-72.2%. We believe that the consumption boom of Q4 industry is sluggish, the pressure on raw material costs is rising, and the operating performance of Jiuyang in a single quarter is under pressure.
The Q4 industry is in a downturn, and the company's single quarter revenue has declined year-on-year: the single quarter revenue of Jiuyang 21q4 has decreased year-on-year. Considering the impact of the high base in the same period last year, the single quarter revenue of Jiuyang 21q4 has increased by 13.3% compared with 19q4, reflecting a relatively stable business strength. 1) In terms of domestic sales, the consumption boom of small kitchen appliances has decreased and the industry competition has intensified. We infer that the domestic sales revenue of Q4 company has decreased by double digits year-on-year. According to the business consultant data, the sales of kitchen small appliances on Q4 Jiuyang Taoxi platform is yoy-14.2%. According to the financial report data, the income of 21h2 Jiuyang food processing machine series, nutrition cooker series, western electric appliance series and cookware is yoy-20.5% / - 8.5% / - 8.4% / + 94.5%. The growth rate of the company's core categories is under pressure, but the growth rate of cookware business is bright. The company has actively arranged the cookware industry and launched damowang wear-resistant and non stick frying pan. The cookware business is expected to continue to contribute to the increase of income. 2) In terms of export, considering the shortage of shipping capacity, we judge that the export revenue of Q4 Jiuyang has decreased year-on-year. The company expects to export US $210 million (about RMB 1.35 billion) in related party transactions in 2022, yoy + 13.6%. We believe that Jiuyang and shark Ninja will give play to the synergy of China's industrial chain, channel marketing and product innovation, and the company's export revenue is expected to increase steadily.
Q4 raw material cost pressure is prominent, and the profitability of a single quarter has decreased: the gross sales difference of Jiuyang Q4 is -4.5pct year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin is -10.2pct year-on-year. Q4 Dazong's raw material price is at a high level, the company's production cost is under great pressure, and the decline of sales scale restricts the embodiment of scale effect. Looking forward to the follow-up, with the gradual stabilization of raw material prices and the company actively promoting the optimization and upgrading of product structure, the company's profitability is expected to rebound.
Q4 net operating cash flow in a single quarter decreased year-on-year: Jiuyang Q4 net operating cash flow + 430 million yuan, yoy-63.8%. The company's operating cash flow decreased, mainly because Q4 company's domestic and foreign sales were under pressure, the decline in sales revenue led to the cash yoy-16.0% received from selling goods and providing labor services, the price of raw materials increased, and the raw material payment paid by the company increased, resulting in the cash YoY + 50.3% paid by Q4 for purchasing goods and receiving labor services.
Investment suggestion: Jiuyang actively expands product categories, optimizes product structure and lays out high-value offline channels represented by shoppingmall. The company adopts a modern governance structure, fully encourages the equity of the management, and plans to launch the first phase of employee stock ownership plan. We expect the company's future performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.07/1.22/1.40 yuan respectively, maintaining the investment rating of buy-a. the six-month target price is 19.31 yuan, equivalent to 18 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply and the competition pattern has deteriorated
