Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) ( Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) ) [key points of investment]
Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) : "dealer" to "service provider" mode, with stable profitability. The company is a leading service provider in the operation industry, providing fine, customized and "one-stop" online services for brands. At present, it has established many benchmark brands such as Baique, Olay, Arden and Mao Geping, and the contracted customers maintain deterministic growth. In 2020 / 21q3, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 310 / 200 million respectively, an increase of 41.5% / 24.2% at the same time, and the CAGR reached 60% from 2016 to 2020. Benefiting from the shift of business focus in 2020, online brand management revenue accounted for 40% / 54% in 2020 / 21h1, the sales rate of 21q3 decreased by 7.1pct to 6.3%, and the gross profit margin increased to 48%.
Industry: the trillion scale of brand service providers can be expected, the leading position of baozun e-commerce is stable, and the remaining top players have track and channel advantages, with CR3 accounting for only 11%. More than half of the operating brands focus on high standardized, high-frequency and high gross profit categories such as beauty personal care, shoes and clothing, home appliances 3C, etc. Among them, the cosmetics market is relatively scattered, with the highest demand rate and commission rate for service providers, which is expected to promote the overall industry concentration. At the same time, content e-commerce such as buffeting has become a gathering place for new traffic outside Amoy, and the global operation capacity has become the key to growth. Compared with DP, traditional TP tiktok service has four advantages: brand, cost, fitness and resource integration.
Moat: strengthen the barrier of "data collection - artificial research and judgment - efficient selection" and enable fine operation. Data center: service standardization is the core. The company has established close cooperation with e-commerce platform data bank. The accumulated member data of self-developed systems such as "Divine Shield" and "magic cube" have advantages in key sales links such as advertising and CRM. Artificial research and judgment & Selection: analyze the data, predict the trend of related products, and carry out package integration, large single products, conforming to the national trend and other strategies to improve the customer unit price.
Highlight 1: full range of products. 1) All products: the company started with beauty care and personal care. In 2020, it developed trendy games, food and other categories. In the same year, it acquired 51% equity of Zhejiang Shangbai, a five-star service provider of tmall, and entered the field of household appliances. A new BD team was established in 21h1, and 35 new customers signed contracts in 21q3. It has won the six-star service provider of tmall for six times. 2) Global: human efficiency improvement is the foundation. The 20Q4 tiktok tiktok tiktok is established. 21Q1 has become the first official certification service to be enrolled in this year. It plans to complete the 200+ live broadcast through the standardized rapid replication, and is expected to take the lead in the running through mode.
Highlight 2: the brand accelerator "1 + 4" participates in the value creation link, and the essence is Brand Co creation. The first independent incubation brand "weixianshuo" was launched on tmall in 21q1 and completed the pre a round of financing in 21h2. In 2021, 618 tmall stores gmv10 million +, ranking among the top 3 light food substitutes; Double 11 Omni channel Gmv. At the same time, with the brand-new mode of "equity participation + operation", the company strategically signed four brands such as Freida and flower planting season, paid attention to the front-end R & D and supply chain level, and met consumers' expectations for the potential energy brand of new domestic products.
[investment suggestions]
The main business is transformed to asset light, and the new BD team will accelerate brand accommodation. The number of brand cooperation is expected to reach 100 + in 2021. The cross category operation ability is good. The refined operation will bring the revenue growth measured by non Gmv caliber, and the service rate is expected to increase; Tiktok is expected to achieve profitability in the four quarter, with the advantage of first mover. Strategic contracted brands mainly cover the upstream of agent operated brands, and the potential of supply chain needs to be tapped. We expect that the company's operating revenue in 202123 will be RMB 1.51/18.2/2.21 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.3% / 20.3% / 21.9% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 / 480 / 640 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2% / 29.7% / 34.3% respectively; EPS is 1.55/2.01/2.70 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 23.6/18.2/13.5 times respectively.
Industry: compared with the profit model of baozun e-commerce, the industry leader, the market should pay more attention to service providers than dealers in the next three years. From the perspective of inventory risk and capital occupation, the profit of online brand management mode is more stable, and the valuation level is improved accordingly. Compared with September 2020 to March 2022, Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) pe (TTM) median is 34.21 times and Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.Ltd(003010) pe (TTM) median is 35.32 times. We believe that comparable companies in the industry are currently undervalued.
The company itself: considering (1) the online brand management business accounts for far more than Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) tiktok, the binding of Tmall channel gradually dispersed to various channels, and has the advantage of first mover in the layout and profitability of the platform. Secondly, since Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) distribution brands are mainly overseas brands under tmall global, or will face the risk of saturation in the beauty market, the company is expected to benefit from its own brand construction and strategic signing mode. (2) Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.Ltd(003010) has a deep layout in the field of mothers and infants, which is greatly affected by rigid demands such as policies and the prosperity of the track. The flexibility of the company in expanding categories may be better than Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.Ltd(003010) . To sum up, we give the company 35 times PE in 2022, with 92.3% room for rise compared with the current 18.2 times PE level, corresponding to the 12-month target price of 70.2 yuan. We give the "buy" rating for the first time.
[risk tips]
The expansion of new brands is less than expected;
Industry competition intensifies;
The continuous impact of the epidemic on the zero growth rate of society.
