\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 38 Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) )
Performance review
On the evening of March 29, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report, with annual revenue of 4.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 401 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.51%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 373 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.72%. The revenue and profit basically met the expectations.
Business analysis
The revenue and profit increased steadily, the gross profit margin was under pressure in the short term, and the fee control was good. During the reporting period, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 49.78% / 41.51% respectively. For the first time since 18 years, the growth rate of profit was slower than that of revenue. Based on price transmission and other reasons, the company's ASP in 21 years increased by 3.96% compared with last year, but affected by the shortage of upstream raw materials and the adjustment of the company's product structure, the gross profit margin in 21 years is still under pressure, down 3.8pp compared with last year. During the reporting period, the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio decreased by 0.48pp/0.89pp year-on-year, with good cost control. We believe that the company can enjoy more industry beta by adjusting its product structure and open the road of transformation.
A number of products have been successfully certified and continue to increase R & D to maintain advantages. During the reporting period, the company released five 5g, five 4G and one NB IOT new products, and many 5g and LTE modules were certified in North America, Europe and Asia, the Middle East and other places, further opening up overseas market space; 5g vehicle specification level module an958-ae has obtained three certificates in a row, which fully meets the complex network environment of Chinese operators. It has qualified for mass production and shipment, and accelerated the upgrading of the company's vehicle front mounted module business from 4G to 5g. At the same time, 4G CAT1 and Nb IOT products are also rapidly in large quantities. On February 23, 22, the company won the bid for China United Network Communications Limited(600050) Yanfei CAT1 customized module project with the first share of CAT1 module, which further illustrates the strength of the company. During the reporting period, the company's R & D expenses increased by 49.23% year-on-year, and the proportion of R & D personnel exceeded 60%. High R & D investment ensured the competitiveness of the company's products.
The module track has grown rapidly and the company's business has improved steadily. According to iotanalytics, the number of active terminals of IOT equipment in the world was 12.3 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach about 24.7 billion in 2025. According to counterpoint data, the global cellular module shipment of 21q3 increased by 70% year-on-year, and the company's market share was 9.6%. Thanks to the large shipment of Nb IOT modules, the company's overall shipment was 80%. We believe that with the company's continuous shipment of high-standard products such as NB IOT / 4G modules and 5g modules in the future, Based on the first mover advantage and technical barriers, the company's revenue / net profit is expected to maintain a steady growth of 40%.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
Combined with the latest performance of the company, we adjusted the company's profit forecast for 22-23 years to 573 million yuan / 857 million yuan, predicted that the 24-year revenue would be 11.98 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company would be 1.242 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE would be 27 / 18 / 12 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The promotion of vehicle module business is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the gross profit margin continues to decline
