\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 877 Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) )
Events
On March 29, the company released its performance for the whole year of 2021, with a revenue of 10.921 billion yuan (+ 16.34%), a net profit attributable to the parent of 677 million yuan (- 4.99%), and a deduction of 520 million yuan (- 7.3%), slightly better than the previous performance forecast value (a net profit attributable to the parent of 660 million yuan and a deduction of 500 million yuan).
Performance review
Quarter by quarter: 4q21 expenses increased, which dragged down the performance of the whole year. From the first quarter to the fourth quarter of the year, the company's revenue changed by + 93% / + 28 / + 4% / - 9% year-on-year respectively; Year on year change in net profit + 2222% / + 86% / - 25% / - 69%. 4q21, as an important peak sales season, suffered from the adverse effects of repeated epidemics and warm winter climate, the revenue and same store declined, the investment in superimposed marketing, digital transformation and other expenses increased, and the net profit fell sharply.
Sub channels: join in and expand stores quickly, and direct sales focus on improving efficiency. In the past 21 years, the company has expanded 536 franchise channels, driving the franchise revenue to increase by 24% to 2.85 billion yuan; There were 62 direct channel net expansion stores, with revenue increasing by 13% to 4.61 billion yuan, and the operation quality was further improved; Online channel revenue increased by 3.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, accounting for more than 30%. It is expected that the direct sales channels will further reduce losses and improve efficiency in 22 years, drive the high-quality growth of income by closing inefficient stores, and the franchisees are expected to continue to grow endogenously and rapidly together; In the long run, the company's direct / franchise / online structure will be gradually optimized to about one-third each.
The 22-year cost investment is expected to be cautious, and the long-term profit margin is expected to return to the normal level. In 21 years, the company's sales / management / R & D expenses increased by 21% / 23% / 30% year-on-year to 39.5/7.1/1.52 billion yuan respectively, which dragged down the company's net profit margin by 1.3pct to 6.20% year-on-year against the background of slowing revenue. The original star endorsement cost in 22 years is expected to be amortized to the end of the third quarter. The cost of the headquarters building is the same as that in 21 years, and the overall cost control will be more strict. In the long run, the net interest rate of the non company is expected to reach more than 10%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering that the impact of the epidemic on clothing retail in the first quarter of 22 was greater than expected, the pressure on inventory turnover and other external factors, as well as the future channel adjustment direction of the company, we lowered the profit forecast for 22-23 years and added 24 years: it is expected that the revenue in 22-24 years will still maintain a stable growth of more than 15%; The gross profit margin in 22 years was adjusted to 52.6% (formerly 52.9%) due to the reduction of Direct stores and inventory clearance at discount. It rebounded with the improvement of operation in 23-24 years; Considering that the amortization of some expenses in 21 years will continue to the next 1-2 years, we assume that the expense rates in 22-23 years are 46.3% (originally 43.5% / 42.8%). In conclusion, the company's net profit in 22-24 years is 8.1 (down 22%) / 9.8 (down 24%) / 1.18 billion yuan, EPS is 1.70/2.06/2.48 yuan respectively, corresponding to 12 / 10 / 8 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects terminal sales; Inventory impairment risk, etc.
