\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 007 Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) )
Events
On March 29, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.436 billion yuan (- 11.69%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.299 billion yuan (- 19.48%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.201 billion yuan (- 18.71%). The performance is lower than expected.
Business analysis
Influenza vaccine is under pressure in the short term and is optimistic about the medium and long-term industrial development trend. In the past 21 years, the company's vaccine business realized an income of 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.59%. It is mainly because the influenza sales season in the second half of the year is affected by factors such as covid-19 vaccine booster vaccination and covid-19 vaccination for children under the age of 12, and the marketing work is greatly affected. In the medium and long term, the penetration rate of influenza vaccine in China is low, which is far lower than the average level of developed countries. After the epidemic, people's health awareness of respiratory diseases has improved, and there is still much room for the continuous improvement of industry penetration rate.
The blood products business was basically stable, and the plasma collection volume increased steadily. In 2021, the company's blood products business realized a revenue of 2.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.25%. Compared with the same period last year, the company achieved a steady growth of more than RMB 1.07 billion in the use rate of blood transfusion products (+ 1.08 billion in the use rate of other blood transfusion products), and achieved a steady growth of more than RMB 1.07 billion in the use rate of blood transfusion products (+ 1.08 billion in the same period last year).
Tetravalent influenza vaccine dosage forms for children were approved for listing, and the growth momentum continued to consolidate. In February, the company's tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine was approved by nmpa for people aged 6 months to 3 years, becoming the first approved enterprise in China to obtain tetravalent influenza vaccine (children's dosage form), further expanding the coverage of tetravalent influenza vaccine. In addition, the company's lyophilized human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) and adsorbed tetanus vaccine have also completed on-site inspection and are in the stage of pending approval and registration, and the vaccine product pipeline continues to be abundant.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We maintain the profit expectation from 2022 to 2023. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 19.9 (+ 53%) and 2.542 (+ 28%) billion yuan respectively. Considering the continuous enrichment of the company's vaccine product line, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.095 billion yuan (+ 22%) in 2024.
From 2022 to 2024, the company's corresponding EPS is 1.09, 1.39 and 1.70 yuan respectively, and the corresponding current PE is 20, 16 and 13 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risk that R & D progress is less than expected; Market competition intensifies risks; The epidemic situation repeatedly affects the risk of plasma collection and vaccination; The expansion of pulp station is not as expected.
