\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Key investment points
Event: on March 29, the company released its annual report for 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 26.636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.37%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 7.212 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 308.71%. On March 28, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter: in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.25-2.45 billion yuan, an increase of 43% – 55% year-on-year and 37.2% – 49.4% month on month.
Comments:
The volume and price rose together, the performance grew steadily, and the annual profitability reached a higher level. Profitability improvement: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 35.49%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.12pct; The net interest rate was 27.23%, a year-on-year increase of 13.52pct; Roe was 38.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 26.42pct. Abundant operating cash flow: the net operating cash flow in 2021 was 4.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.81%, and the R & D cost was 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.72%., In 2021, the total assets reached 28.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.44%, and the asset liability ratio was 20.76%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.09 percentage points. Continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement: the total expense rate of the company in 2021 was 3.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.64pct. Among them, the sales expense rate was 0.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.09pct, the management expense (including R & D expenses, comparable caliber) rate was 2.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1pct, and the financial expense rate was 0.36%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.45pct. The company has maintained high operation and management efficiency, adhered to fine management and excellent three fee control.
Throughout the year, the boom in the prices of main products has driven the performance. In 2021, benefiting from the recovery of downstream demand in China, the price of the company’s main coal chemical products showed a steady upward trend throughout the year. According to wind, in terms of product price, in 2021, the average price of urea was 2238 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, the average price of DMF was 13235 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 111.8%, the average price of adipic acid was 10765 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 57.3%, the average price of acetic acid was 6558 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 146.3%, and the average price of octanol was 14233 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 95.9%; On the cost side, the average price of bituminous coal was 1009 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 62%. In the first half of the year, Shandong Chemical Co., Ltd. has achieved the “double control of production and marketing” policy, which has greatly improved the supply of raw materials and ensured that Shandong Chemical Co., Ltd. has achieved good energy consumption in the first half of the year.
The high oil price supports the boom of coal chemical industry, and flexible production strengthens profitability. In terms of product price, according to wind, the average price of urea in Q1 is 2697 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 11.3%, the average price of DMF is 16992 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 3.4%, the average price of adipic acid is 13589 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 6.3%, the average price of acetic acid is 6023 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 15.5%, and the average price of octanol is 12552 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 3.3%; On the cost side, the average price of bituminous coal was 1043 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 29.7%. The company has a production capacity of 1.55 million tons of urea, 300000 tons of DMF, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of acetic acid, 330000 tons of adipic acid and 750000 tons of polyol. The high oil price environment supports the continuation of the coal chemical industry boom. At present, the high coal price has fallen, the increase and expansion of the company’s price difference has strong flexibility, and the company has the advantage of one head and multi line industrial chain, which is conducive to grasping the market trend and realizing excess returns.
DMC and other new projects contribute to the increment and increase the electrolyte solvent layout in the long term. The 300000 ton DMC of the company was started on October 3. At present, 24 cooperative enterprises including Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) have been developed. According to Baichuan, the current price of battery grade DMC is 8200 yuan / ton, which still maintains strong profitability. According to the announcement on January 18, 2022, the company has successfully developed electronic grade methyl ethyl carbonate and diethyl carbonate products. After the successful development of new products, the company has the production capacity of three electrolyte solvents, improved the integrated market operation capacity and “package” service capacity, which will promote the company to smoothly enter the field of new energy market and promote the rapid development of new energy industry, It will also lay a solid foundation for the subsequent transformation, upgrading and development of enterprises. According to qilu.com, the Hualu high-end solvent project has been started on February 25. After the unit is completed and put into operation, the company will increase the annual output of 300000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 300000 tons of methyl ethyl carbonate and 50000 tons of annual by-product diethyl carbonate. The solvent product matrix will be further improved.
Multi point flowering layout of new materials. 1) In terms of new nylon materials, caprolactam and supporting devices of amide and new nylon materials project (300000 tons / year) have been opened up, and 200000 tons of nylon 6 is expected to be put into operation in the middle of this year; In addition, according to qilu.com, the nylon 66 high-end new material project has been started on February 25, with the construction of two 40000 t / a nylon 66 units, one 200000 t / a adipic acid unit, one 40000 t / a hexamethylene diamine unit and one 360000 T / a nitric acid unit. The basic raw materials liquid ammonia, hydrogen and cyclohexanol are self-sufficient by the company’s existing units. The final products are 80000 T / a nylon 66 and 148000 T / a adipic acid; 2) PBAT: the company plans to build a 120000 T / a PBAT degradable plastic project in Dezhou park. After putting into operation, the production capacity of PBAT degradable plastic, BDO and NMP will be 120000 T / A, 180000 T / A and 50000 T / a respectively, with a total investment of 4.428 billion yuan; In addition, the company plans to build a production line with an annual output of 200000 tons of BDO, 30000 tons of PBAT and 100000 tons of NMP and its supporting equipment and facilities. The project was publicized for the first time in Jingzhou Ecological Environment Bureau on March 16. 3) New construction of 300000 tons of dicarboxylic acid: according to the company’s official website, the company plans to build a new 300000 tons / year dicarboxylic acid project in Dezhou Park, with a total investment of 980 million yuan. It is optimistic that the company will bloom in many places in the long term and continue to open up growth space.
Jingzhou base accelerated. According to the “Jingzhou new energy base” project, the company will fully support the construction of Jingzhou new industry base in November 2026, and ensure the smooth docking of Jingzhou new energy base.
Risk tips: price fluctuation of products and raw materials, project progress not meeting expectations, safety and environmental protection factors.
Profit forecast: considering the rhythm of capacity release and product boom, we adjusted the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.938 billion yuan (formerly 7.947 billion yuan), 8.937 billion yuan (formerly 8.331 billion yuan) and 9.934 billion yuan (newly added) respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating
