\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event overview
The company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 136.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.4%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 45.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.8%, a month on month increase of + 58.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 35.8%, a month on month increase of + 25.8%.
Analysis and judgment:
Personnel expansion and speed up product volume and price increase
The revenue of 21q4 increased rapidly and the scale expanded rapidly. The company’s single quarter revenue in 2021q4 reached 45.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.8% and a month on month increase of + 58.0%. Under the relief of core shortage in the fourth quarter, the company’s sales volume increased significantly month on month, reaching 397000 units in 21q4, a month on month increase of + 49.3%. The company’s expansion accelerated significantly. By the end of 2021, the total number of employees of the company was 78000, a year-on-year increase of + 23.4%. Looking forward to 2022, we expect the company to maintain a rapid pace of expansion.
High end has achieved initial results, and ASP has reached a new high in a single quarter. The company’s product matrix is constantly enriched, the market share of Haval and pickup truck is stable, the brands of wey, Euler and tank are growing rapidly, and the new product cycle is full-scale and high-end. Single car ASP increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s ASP reached 106000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.0%, of which 2021q4 single car ASP reached 115000 yuan, a month on month increase of + 5.8%. We think ASP will pull more significantly this year.
Profit short-term fluctuation expense rate marginal downward
Due to the disturbance of multiple factors, the profit fluctuates in the short term. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 16.2%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.1pct. In 2021q4, the single quarter gross profit margin was 15.3%, with a month on month ratio of -2.0pct. The non net profit deducted in 2021q4 was RMB 550 million, a month on month increase of – 32.2%. On the one hand, the employee cost of the company accounted for 9.9% of the total revenue in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7pct, of which the Q4 one-time bonus occurred greatly, and the profit was offset accordingly. We expect that the scale effect after personnel expansion is expected to accelerate the release and drive the profit to further improve; On the other hand, the amortization of equity incentive is mainly concentrated in Q4, affecting about 400500 million yuan. We expect that with the exercise of equity incentive, the impact will be gradually reduced in the second half of this year.
The expense rate is properly controlled and the overall margin is downward. In 2021, the company’s sales / management / financial expense ratio was 3.8% / 3.0% / – 0.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.2pct / + 0.5pct / – 0.7pct respectively. The marginal sales expense rate decreased rapidly. The Q4 sales expense rate was 2.8%, with a month on month ratio of -2.3pct. We believe that it is mainly due to the improvement of product power and the advent of peak season, and the advertising and promotion expenses have been greatly reduced. In addition, in 2021, Q4 company took the initiative to narrow the discount and further control the cost.
The output of hard core technology is accelerated, and the profit is expected to increase rapidly
From January to February this year, lemon, tank and coffee intelligent platform models accounted for 75.1%, and the output of hard core technology was accelerated. Relying on three core technology platforms, the company has achieved breakthroughs in power performance and full speed efficiency. At the same time, the coffee intelligent platform is fully enabled in intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit, accelerating the vehicle to intelligent electrification.
With the introduction of high profit models, the company’s profit is expected to increase rapidly. From January to February this year, the proportion of intelligent models of the company increased to 88.1%, driving the sales of models with more than 150000 yuan to 15.5%. The company’s high margin models are listed one after another, which is expected to drive the rapid improvement of profits: Tank 500 has been listed this month. We expect that all wey brands will launch dhtphev versions one after another, and high margin products such as Euler ballet cat, lightning cat and punk cat will also be listed this year to improve the overall profit level.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company’s new products outside China is progressing smoothly, a new cycle of intelligent electrification has been opened, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We are optimistic that the company will increase both volume and price this year, and maintain the company’s revenue forecast from 2022 to 2023. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 1920.5/256.74/billion yuan. Due to the continuous rise of raw materials, the net profit forecast is adjusted accordingly. From 2022 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted from 113.0/15.76/billion yuan to 10.6/15.62 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS is adjusted from 1.22/1.71 yuan to 1.09/1.69 yuan. It is estimated that the company’s total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 330.99 billion yuan and 20.02 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 217 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 27.05 yuan / share on March 29, 2022, PE is 25 / 16 / 12 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Exceeding the expected impact of core shortage; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, haver and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was less than expected.
