\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Events
On the evening of March 29, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022: the revenue of 2022q1 is expected to be about 3 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1 billion yuan, an increase of about 24% at the same time.
Key investment points
The first quarter made a good start as scheduled, and the tone remained unchanged
The company’s revenue in 2022q1 was about 3 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1 billion yuan, an increase of about 24% at the same time. The company made a good start as scheduled, and the overall trend is good.
At present, the company’s Guoyuan series accounts for about 80%, and the V series is expected to continue to be large-scale. V3 will undertake more consumer groups of four open upgrades and follow-up capacity expansion; V9 takes advantage of the hot sauce and wine to form a sauce and wine atmosphere in the province, relying more on group purchase channels.
Implement the “13445 quality policy” in 2022
At present, the company is closely focused on the theme of “developing high-quality products and new wine margins”, firmly grasp the keynote of “good luck and quick pursuit”, follows the “543” development trend of liquor industry, attaches importance to strategic guidance, and resolves quality first, focusing on Baijiu‘s main business.
In 2022, the company’s marketing will implement the “13445” policy: “1” refers to focusing on high quality and focusing on new leaps. “3” refers to the three modernizations strategy, highlighting differentiation, building core competitiveness, striving for high-end, seizing new competitive tracks, speeding up the full flower, and making a breakthrough outside the province. “4” refers to industry confidence, brand confidence, quality confidence and development confidence. “4” refers to deepening the four campaigns: 1) unswervingly, strive to improve the potential energy of V9 brand, promote supremacy, sell business, and have V9 first and then V series; 2) Improve quality and expand coverage, continue to strengthen the basic market of opening system, enlarge the popularity of brand reputation, improve the control and profit sharing system, and continue to promote regional intensive cultivation; 3) Highlight the characteristics and strengthen the effectiveness of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation; 4) Take multiple measures at the same time to accelerate the market breakthrough of sectors outside the province, coordinate the layout of dual brands, build diversified sectors, and cultivate innovative new consumption. “5” refers to strengthening the five guarantees, upgrading the marketing organization (strengthening V9 business unit, establishing Guoyuan, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) business unit and Gaogou sales company), increasing market investment, deepening process reform, implementing the business excellence plan and improving the incentive mechanism.
Equity incentive is expected to accelerate the implementation, and the company’s three highlights in the future
The company has completed the repurchase on November 26, 2021, with a cumulative repurchase of about 7.7 million shares, accounting for 0.6138% of the total share capital of the company. The average repurchase price is 56.24 yuan / share, and the total amount paid is about 433 million yuan. We believe that the equity incentive scheme is expected to accelerate the implementation in the first half of 2022.
Three highlights of the company in the future: first, the 10 billion target of V Series in the next decade, and the price band of 600700 yuan for V3 and competitive M6 + advance card; Second, the 14th five year plan for Southern Jiangsu is expected to be nearly 4 billion, with large growth space in the future; Third, the proportion outside the province in the 14th five year plan accounts for more than 20%, and the expansion outside the province is a must for the company to open the ceiling.
Profit forecast
At present, the company is deeply promoting differentiation, high-end and nationalization, and fully implementing the V-series battle, K-series promotion battle, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation war and breakthrough war outside the province. Taking the Yangtze River Delta as the center, accelerate the formation of strategic sectors; Cultivate key markets with key regions of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei as the core; The market development of prefectures and cities adopts the interactive layout development strategy of cities, counties and districts, and the market development of counties and districts adheres to the “focus law”. Breakthroughs outside the province follow the regional expansion strategy of “comprehensive planning, key breakthroughs, surrounding radiation and echelon development”. We continue to be optimistic about the continuous improvement of the proportion of Guoyuan series, driving the continuous optimization of product structure. V series is expected to become the company’s new power engine and follow Su liquor to build surrounding sectors for a long time. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.60/2.00/2.57 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 25 / 20 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the growth of the four open sectors was less than expected, the growth of the V series was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
