\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event overview
The company released the annual report of 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 216.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 28.1%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 70.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.6% and a month on month increase of + 30.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 26.6% and a month on month increase of – 52.6%.
Analysis and judgment:
Revenue increased significantly month on month, and ASP increased steadily
The company’s revenue has increased rapidly and the growth trend is obvious. The company’s automobile business had a revenue of 112.49 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 33.9%, mainly due to the substantial increase in sales of pure electric + hybrid two wheel drive. In 2021, the company’s total automobile sales volume was 740000, with a year-on-year increase of + 73.3%, of which the sales volume of pure electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 321000 and 273000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 145.0% and + 467.6% respectively.
ASP has exceeded 150000 yuan and achieved remarkable high-end results. In 2021, the company’s automobile ASP reached 151000 yuan. Excluding the disturbance caused by mask sales in 2020, the company’s average single vehicle price is in a steady upward trend. Among them, flagship models Han EV, Han DM and B-class SUV Tang DM-I have significantly driven the company’s ASP. We expect that ASP will continue to improve steadily this year, with hybrid new models as the key. Han DM-I and Han dm-p will be on the market in April, and the warship series products will also be on the market one after another. The pricing is slightly higher than that of dynasty series, which is expected to drive the steady improvement of ASP.
Impairment one-time disturbance gross profit margin shows resilience
Q4 performance is mainly due to the centralized impact of one-time impairment, which is expected to gradually improve in 2022. In 2021, the company’s total withdrawal of credit and asset impairment was 1.25 billion yuan, of which Q4 withdrawal was about 900 million yuan. Regardless of its impact, Q4 net profit was about 1.5 billion yuan. Based on the principle of prudence, the company accrues corresponding impairment for receivables and assets, including asset impairment of 860 million yuan and credit impairment of 390 million yuan in 2021. Decreased by 50 million yuan and 560 million yuan respectively compared with 2020. We believe that the impairment is a one-time impact, and we are optimistic that the company’s 2022 young clothes will enter the battle and usher in the improvement of profits.
Gross profit margin remained stable and vertical integration showed its advantages. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s automobile was 17.4%, an increase of 2.1pct compared with 2021h1. The increase of gross profit margin of bulk vehicle companies in 2021 is put forward, which is a test of the increase of gross profit margin of bulk vehicle companies. On the one hand, the company is in a period of rapid volume of new products, and high gross profit models improve the overall profit; On the other hand, the company pays attention to the vertical integrated supply chain and is highly self-made in core components such as three electricity system, which greatly reduces the impact of supply chain disturbance and bulk rise. According to our split, despite the continuous rise of bulk in the second half of 2021, the company’s annual material cost accounted for 79.1% of the operating cost, which was still the same as that in 2021h1. The cost of batteries has risen sharply this year, and we expect that the advantages of vertical integration of the company will continue to be verified.
The shift from defining technology to defining users is expected to highlight the scale effect
The introduction of vehicle models accelerates the realization, from defining technology to defining users. With DMI and E platform 3.0, the company accelerates the output of vehicle models. Unlike most companies that start by relying on user positioning (SUV), the company gives priority to breaking through platform technology, and the strategy of building fist products based on technology has been continuously recognized by the market. We believe that the company has a strong late mover advantage in product positioning, with the continuous expansion of hybrid models in the range of 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 yuan and the blessing of dynasty + ocean dual network, which is expected to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles; Han dm-p highlights the ultimate performance and is expected to become a 300000 strong competitor to consolidate the high-end share of the brand; Frigate 07 is expected to fill the company’s vacancy in the medium-sized SUV pedigree. With the rapid growth of sales, the scale effect is expected to continue to show. The proportion of fixed costs of the company’s automobile business significantly exceeds the industry average, of which the production Depreciation accounts for more than 10% of the operating cost. We expect that with the substantial growth of sales volume, the proportion of fixed costs of the company is expected to decline rapidly, driving the net profit of single vehicle to increase gradually.
Investment advice
The company relies on DM-I and E3 0 two advanced technology platforms, from defining technology to defining users, have significantly improved the iteration speed of models and the probability of popular models. With the rapid growth of the company’s force majeure and the stability of the supply chain, the company’s ability to deal with the inflection of the force majeure and the safety of the listed new car industry has been continuously demonstrated, and at the same time, the company’s ability to deal with the inflection of the force majeure has been tested. We raised the company’s revenue forecast for 20222023 from 278.94/333.84 billion yuan to 314.74/377.45 billion yuan. Due to the rising cost of raw materials and other factors, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 was adjusted from 8.11/11.96 billion yuan to 7.46/13.26 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS was adjusted from 2.79/4.11 yuan to 2.56/4.56 yuan. The revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 are predicted to be 428.34 billion yuan and 17.93 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 616 million yuan. According to the closing price of 231 yuan / share on March 29, 2022, the corresponding PE is 90 / 51 / 38 times respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downside risk of auto market; Sales of new models fell short of expectations.
