\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 828 Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) )
Core view: home consumption focuses on experience and service, offline trading scenes are difficult to replace, chain stores have better drainage efficiency, and will still be the mainstream channel of home retail in the medium and long term Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) is a national leading chain of home shopping malls. In recent years, it has accelerated the expansion of light assets, upgraded the operation of shopping malls, and is expected to optimize the financial leverage and operating efficiency.
Offline physical space is difficult to subvert, and the drainage efficiency of home shopping malls is better. China's home furnishing industry is still in the primary stage of development, with low product brand concentration. Channel expansion is the core driving force of sales growth. As home consumption focuses on experience, performance and after-sales, offline transaction scenarios are difficult to replace, and the impact of e-commerce is relatively limited. In the offline channel, chain home shopping malls connect brands, dealers and consumers, and create certain added value in investment attraction, drainage and service. It is an important organizational form of offline home retail channel.
Compared with the United States, the competition pattern of Chinese home shopping malls is more scattered. Compared with the United States, the market concentration of Chinese home shopping malls is still low. In 2019, the CR2 of American home shopping malls was 44%, nearly four times that of the Chinese market. By continuously expanding stores and expanding the advantages of sales network, the leading market share of China's home shopping malls is still in the stage of expansion. At present, there are great differences in the leading business models of home shopping malls between China and the United States: Home Depot in the United States is a buyout sales, and the upstream procurement advantages complement the downstream store network, making it easier to establish competitive barriers Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) , Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) are all operated under the investment promotion system, mainly relying on leasing and management. Trying to transform the buyout mode on the basis of store expansion may become a breakthrough point for the further improvement of the market share of leading enterprises in China's home shopping malls.
Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) : asset light mode accelerates store expansion and digital empowerment operation upgrading Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) is the largest home decoration and furniture shopping mall in China. The layout of stores in China is perfect, and the sales scale ranks first in the industry Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) self operated shopping malls occupy the advantageous location of the first and second tier cities earlier and have strong attraction for investment attraction. They are a stable source of income and gross profit growth of the company. The proportion of self owned property is relatively high, which can effectively hedge the risk of rising land rent costs and share the real estate appreciation dividend, but it also brings a heavy debt burden. Over the past two years, Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) has accelerated the expansion of the sinking market with asset light modes such as entrusted shopping malls, deepened the strategic cooperation with Alibaba, accelerated the digital transformation and enabled the operation upgrading of shopping malls. With the continuous promotion of the development strategy of "reducing leverage, neglecting assets and emphasizing operation", Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) is expected to step into the channel of steadily reducing leverage, and the capital structure and operation efficiency are expected to be optimized.
For the first time, give a "overweight" rating. We expect that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 16.0 billion / 17.8 billion / 19.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% / 10.9% / 10.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2 / 24 / 2.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.4% / 23.2% / 19.6%; EPS is 0.45/0.56/0.67 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 18.0/14.6/12.2 times. At present, the valuation of Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) PE is higher than the industry average. Considering the steady operation of Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) self operated shopping malls, the better value of self owned property assets, and the expected fundamental improvement brought by the promotion of the strategy of "light assets, reducing leverage and heavy operation", we believe that Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) is expected to maintain a certain valuation premium. For the first time, we rated the company as "overweight".
Risk tips: (1) increased competition risk; (2) Financial leverage risk; (3) Real estate demand risk; (4) Calculate hypothetical risk; (5) Information lag risk.
