\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 38 Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) )
Event 1): the company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue was 4.874 billion yuan, yoy + 24.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 352 million yuan, yoy + 31.29%; Deduct 285 million yuan of non net profit, yoy + 26.18%.
Event 2): the company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022: it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 95-120 million yuan in 22q1, yoy + 21.72% ~ 53.75%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 84.5-109.5 million, yoy + 20.73% ~ 56.45%.
Steady growth shows resilience, and new varieties have sufficient momentum. The company achieved revenue of RMB 1.67 billion in single 21q4, a year-on-year increase of + 38.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 91.902 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.0%; Deduct non net profit of 56.606 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.4%. The revenue of pigment / spice / nutrition and medicinal products, cottonseed business and other products increased by 11%, 45% and 5% respectively. Single Q4 increased by 14%, 89% and 5% respectively. In terms of the performance of varieties throughout the year: 1) the main varieties remained stable and showed resilience: the prices of capsanthin and lutein in the main varieties decreased year-on-year, and the prices of capsanthin raw materials rose sharply due to the limited supply in India. Under this background, the company actively purchased and prepared goods, and the sales of capsanthin increased by about 10% year-on-year; After adjustment in the second half of the year, the sales volume of Capsicum essence resumed growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7%; Lutein sold 307 million grams. At present, the company has accelerated the planting progress of raw materials in Zambia farm. Sinazonggui farm has developed 30000 mu of pepper planting, with a year-on-year increase of about 5 times; The planting area of marigold in vigorous farm is nearly 10000 mu, ensuring the supply of raw materials for main varieties and promoting more stable development in the future. 2) The development momentum of new varieties is good: Stevia increased by 181% at the same time, and the sales revenue of spice extract exceeded 110 million yuan, returning to the level before the epidemic; Lycopene income increased by more than 80% over the same period. The health food business doubled its revenue.
The net profit margin continued to rise, and the salesperson's salary increase activated the vitality of the team. The company's annual net interest rate was 7.19%, year-on-year + 0.39pct; The gross profit margin was 14.75%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.91pct. The net interest rate of single Q4 was 5.49%, year-on-year + 0.35ct. By category, the gross profit margins of Pigments / spices / nutritional and pharmaceutical products, cottonseed business and other products were -0.79pct, - 0.63pct and - 3.2pct respectively year-on-year. Among them, the decline of gross profit margin of pigment and other products is mainly due to the sharp rise of lutein price last year, which raised the base of gross profit margin. The sales expense rate was 1.13%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.03pct. In terms of split, the increase of employee salary expense rate was considered to be due to the company's full incentive to the sales team and the withdrawal of bonus; The management expense ratio was 3.22%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.55pct, mainly due to the expansion of income scale and dilution of expenses; The R & D expense ratio was 1.95%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.16pct; The financial expense ratio was 1.04%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.79pct.
The contribution of Zambia's raw material base has increased + the volume of new varieties, and the profitability has room to improve. In the medium and long term, the company's core varieties of planting and lifting business optimize the production line + increase the proportion of high gross margin categories with obvious technical advantages + Zambia base gradually starts to supply raw materials, and the profitability still has room to improve. According to the announcement of the company's early investment in Zambia's natural pigment project, we expect that Zambia will make more and more contributions to the supply of low-cost raw materials in the next two years, and the cost advantage of the company will be further improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: category expansion + obvious cost advantage, optimistic about the steady increase of net interest rate. The main reasons why we are optimistic about the company are: first, the leading extraction technology + strong control of raw materials, and obvious cost advantage; Second, the number one category in the world has gradually increased. With the increase of market share, the bargaining power of categories has been continuously strengthened, driving the increase of net interest rate; Third, the development of nutrition and health care and the extraction of industrial marijuana can be expected, with large space and high profit margin, and the profit growth is expected to be faster in the future. According to the latest annual report of the company and the price change feedback of main varieties, we adjusted the profit forecast. From 2022 to 2024, the revenue was 6.12/75.1/9.13 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 25.6% / 22.6% / 21.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.4/5.5/690 million yuan respectively, with an increase of 24.4% / 25.4% / 25.2%, and the EPS was 0.82/1.03/1.29 yuan respectively (0.82/1.07 yuan in the previous 22-23 years), corresponding to the current PE was 21x, 16x and 13X, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk of continuous spread of global epidemic, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation caused by weather and other natural factors, and the risk of untimely update of information and data used in the research report.
