\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 939 China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) )
Key investment points
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The annual revenue showed a quarterly upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; The growth rate of net profit before provision slowed down slightly, while the asset quality improved, the provision provision provision remained stable, and the net profit achieved double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. 2. Q4 net interest income was + 3.4% month on month, with both volume and price rising, mainly supported by interest margin. The quarterly annualized interest margin rose 5bp to 2.10% month on month, mainly supported by the asset side, and the asset yield rose 6BP to 3.66% month on month. It is expected to be mainly affected by structural factors. In the second half of the year, especially Q4, the investment of high-yield retail loans was increased, and the new investment of retail loans accounted for nearly 60% in a single quarter, which led to the continuous improvement of the income of mobile assets. 3. Net non interest income was + 15.8% year-on-year, contributed by other net non interest owners, and the growth rate of medium income was not weak under the high base. The net fee income increased by 6.0% year-on-year, the income of financial products continued to increase, and the annual income reached 18.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%; Agency + wealth management business accounted for 27.4% in total, and the company’s wealth management business was steadily and orderly promoted. 4. The indicators of poor asset quality have improved significantly. In 2021, the China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) non-performing rate was 1.42%, which continued to decline sharply by 9bp compared with the third quarter, and the stock risk was gradually cleared. The coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 11.4 percentage points to 240% month on month; The loan allocation ratio decreased 6BP to 3.40% month on month. 5. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose month on month. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 13.59%, 14.14% and 17.85% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 19bp, + 18bp and + 60BP.
Insufficient annual report: 1. The deposit scale decreased slightly month on month. Q4 deposit scale was – 0.8% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, accounting for a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 83.8% in the third quarter. At the same time, the demand degree of deposits decreased compared with half a year, driving the interest payment cost to rise slightly month on month. 2. The annualized cost income ratio of a single quarter rose year-on-year. Q4 single quarter annualized cost income ratio was 40.8%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points over the same period last year. The cumulative management fee increased by 17.0% year-on-year, which was wider than the 10.6% year-on-year in the third quarter.
Investment suggestion: the company’s performance grew steadily, showing the company’s fine management level. Company 2022e, 2023epb0 58X/0.52X； PE5. 04x / 4.81x (state-owned bank pb0.53x/0.49x; pe4.84x / 4.55x), China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) excellent management, strong innovation ability and excellent indicators. In recent years, we have increased investment in science and technology to build a first-class banking group. We are optimistic about its sustainable competitiveness. The company has cheap valuation, high roe and strong sustainability.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 821946/906421/997343 billion yuan (the previous value is 828231/888872 / – million), with a growth rate of 7.4% / 10.3% / 10.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 318818/336470/355774 billion yuan (the previous value was 318978/335563 / – million), with a growth rate of 5.4% / 5.5% / 5.7%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 4.25% / 4.25% / 4.25%; The bond investment yield is 3.00% / 3.00% / 3.00%. 2. The company’s deposits are facing competitive pressure, and the interest payment rate is adjusted to 1.70% / 1.70% / 1.70%. 3. The asset quality of the company is good, the provision is stable, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 1.05% / 1.12% / 1.18%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
